College Football · resolved market
Buffalo vs. Kent State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e3e0ade855d6f9bcfd83f174acc0492bb34f473cfa3dd372c5d558d97d3f37d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Buffaloof Buffalo, Kent State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Kent State | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Buffalo | 78c | 3,495$2,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.18 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecb…19babacked Buffalo | 70c | 2,380$1,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.56 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Kent State | 30c | 2,374$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.8 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Kent State | 6c | 2,005$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.28 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…f0f8backed Kent State | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Kent State | 25c | 1,380$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.8 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Kent State | 28c | 1,344$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.75 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Kent State | 27c | 890$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.3 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Buffalo | 77c | 704$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.74 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Kent State | 26c | 600$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 309 | 49.5%153 W · 156 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Kent State | 7c | 600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Kent State | 20c | 469$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.66 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Kent State | 7c | 348$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 292 | 49%143 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…823abacked Buffalo | 46c | 329$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.32 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Buffalo | 72c | 323.05$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.05 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x519d…37a1backed Kent State | 3c | 321.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Kent State | 6c | 299.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Kent State | 14c | 294.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Kent State | 15c | 291$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Kent State | 6c | 219.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Kent State | 6c | 179.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Buffalo | 78c | 175.16$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3211…49e2backed Kent State | 8c | 133.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Kent State | 10c | 130.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…c177backed Kent State | 30c | 130$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…7edabacked Kent State | 28c | 70.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Kent State | 29c | 66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2873…ad0abacked Kent State | 57c | 31.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked Buffalo | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 32 | 87.5%28 W · 4 L | +5.1wins | +0.16per pick | 72cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.