MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e42fc9cf17979b6f029fe1b3f9dce9b87e1eeb1f8eff6fda7d44699e9df8cb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 11,836$4,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,456.6 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 63c | 8,808$5,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,549.03 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Boston Red Sox | 63c | 1,024$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.12 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 679.37$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.21 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 454.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 347 | 56.5%196 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 320.77$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.5 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea60…e977backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 310$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 300.65$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.62 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 217.65$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.72 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa080…234fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 196.88$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 149$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.87 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 119$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Boston Red Sox | 63c | 118$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 117.68$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 109.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 91.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.21 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Boston Red Sox | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd03a…4e9abacked Boston Red Sox | 65c | 78.4$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed Boston Red Sox | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858c…84b1backed Boston Red Sox | 23c | 61.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 60.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 53.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Toronto Blue Jays | 72c | 39.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 30.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Boston Red Sox | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 29.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…9642backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -8.9wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 21.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Boston Red Sox | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-5.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.