MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca25fbe87a9d753f31d119ed0daa2395029d5d263ca4477100cb77513cad3925
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 60c | 2,990$1,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.3 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 36c | 2,250$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 64c | 1,672$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.94 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 39c | 1,511$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.55 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 58c | 1,266$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.32 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 30c | 965.36$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.58 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 40c | 783$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.2 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 42c | 700$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 38c | 578.46$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.81 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 40c | 550.02$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Under | 62c | 533.5$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.73 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 349.45$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Over | 40c | 282$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 62c | 221$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.42 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 39c | 215.19$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed Under | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 59c | 176.13$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 36c | 166$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 62c | 161.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.76 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 15c | 145.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 38c | 129.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Over | 36c | 129.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 36c | 87.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 61c | 73.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a1…296fbacked Over | 26c | 70.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked Over | 34c | 57.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0e…cdedbacked Over | 44c | 47.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 32c | 46.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 42c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Over | 40c | 27.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-5.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.