MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa1d58541ae57e80fe495b1c51fa3ff2ae0507720f30ed57d60593c053544d26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 9,044$5,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,991.32 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafee…881ebacked Over | 42c | 7,143$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under | 52c | 3,850$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,848 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc163…aed8backed Under | 57c | 3,509$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.77 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 47c | 3,072$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,443.84 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 46c | 2,238$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.57 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 43c | 2,172$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.26 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 46c | 1,631$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.93 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 1,321$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.17 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 45c | 888.89$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 47c | 881.51$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.92 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 52c | 711$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.59 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 43c | 585$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.55 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 46c | 539.26$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.67 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 37c | 508.54$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.11 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 47c | 500$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.08 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 37c | 484$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.89 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 483.37$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.93 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 44c | 444.43$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.55 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 46c | 440$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.64 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56bc…a1e4backed Under | 67c | 405.81$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.92 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea60…e977backed Under | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Over | 47c | 398.51$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.46 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 47c | 397$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.58 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 64c | 364.07$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.75 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x428d…8cb6backed Under | 56c | 346.05$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.26 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 45c | 333.2$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 41c | 300.92$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.48 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 25c | 245.53$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 63c | 229.97$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.73 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 48c | 219.23$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.23 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 49c | 212.5$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.12 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Under | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 112 | 58%65 W · 47 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 49c | 170$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 10c | 166.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 80c | 161.01$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 45c | 139.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 46c | 119.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Under | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 544 | 55.1%300 W · 244 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 143 | 58%83 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 13c | 99.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Over | 46c | 96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…2d37backed Under | 52c | 95.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Over | 22c | 86.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 57c | 85.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 53c | 82.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…ed42backed Over | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 23c | 65.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 48c | 61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 48c | 56.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Over | 47c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb4…b6e1backed Under | 57c | 49.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 41c | 41.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 40.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 49c | 40.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Over | 53c | 36.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 47c | 30.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x093a…e580backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…b7d4backed Under | 50c | 29.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…1ca9backed Over | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 43c | 27.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd25…a624backed Under | 77c | 27.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…30f7backed Under | 55c | 26.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x787b…86c3backed Over | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Over | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed Over | 64c | 22.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-5.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.