Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e5196d8b2e7dd933e68aed85f1147dffb4ffe88c20345c734a56a0b516e3f81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 80c | 1,018$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.44 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 720.61$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 572.34$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.38 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 5c | 361.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 22c | 349.67$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 32c | 316.21$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.86 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 25c | 309.76$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.62 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 13c | 254.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 183$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 181.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 177.93$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 78c | 157.05$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 13c | 148.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 135.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 133.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 107.14$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30dd…3aa1backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 105.37$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 28c | 105$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 102.07$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 32c | 97.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 31c | 76.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 74c | 71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 26c | 70.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b3…b220backed Yes | 32c | 68.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 67.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 67.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 31c | 60.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 69c | 57.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 26c | 56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 79c | 55.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 34c | 46.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 66c | 37.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 33c | 36.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 69c | 33.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 29.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 27.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 78c | 27.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 78c | 25.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 68c | 24.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 66c | 22.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 68c | 22.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 19.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 67c | 19.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 75c | 18.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 67c | 16.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.