Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e765ee635e721b34dac5464623afbace907bbee264b885039ebeacc3048218c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 45c | 2,563$1,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404.98 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 69c | 597.8$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.53 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 570.65$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.05 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 527.93$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.08 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 46c | 515.65$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.45 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 397$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.23 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 51c | 253.02$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.04 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 54c | 203.05$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.65 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 167.39$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 58c | 160$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 54c | 150$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.54 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 141.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 137.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 37c | 135$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2982…aa17backed No | 56c | 129$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 123.04$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 33c | 110$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb9…191abacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 23c | 85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 36c | 80.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 45c | 79.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 45c | 79.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed Yes | 46c | 75.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa598…2ff3backed No | 54c | 62.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 49c | 58.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 43c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 55c | 53.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 52c | 51.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 39c | 49.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 30c | 49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a36…f270backed Yes | 21c | 49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 70c | 41.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…ac86backed Yes | 46c | 41.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 46c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…a4febacked No | 30c | 36.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 51c | 31.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…3a55backed Yes | 45c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 27.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 45c | 23.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 46c | 23.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed No | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 72c | 20.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 58c | 20.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 57c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0b…17a4backed Yes | 53c | 19.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.