MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e8f29e0e58d51791e1bf916a5caf724561db27d4fafd23cd186a504a7dfd554
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 39c | 5,575$2,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,187.78 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 3,164$2,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.92 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 1,289$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.08 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 1,029$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.71 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Miami Marlins | 36c | 733.32$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.33 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 587.05$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.73 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Baltimore Orioles | 75c | 450.48$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.35 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 48c | 302.97$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.55 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 294.14$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.62 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 289.6$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.36 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…5cecbacked Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Miami Marlins | 23c | 278.79$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Baltimore Orioles | 77c | 259.73$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Miami Marlins | 27c | 226.04$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Miami Marlins | 22c | 222.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 335 | 15.5%52 W · 283 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 183.23$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.93 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 167.96$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.85 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Miami Marlins | 20c | 136.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 74c | 135.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 129.28$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Baltimore Orioles | 77c | 77.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Miami Marlins | 49c | 64.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Miami Marlins | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1f…ab66backed Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 56.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 78c | 54.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…61fcbacked Miami Marlins | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Miami Marlins | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Miami Marlins | 29c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 36.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…febdbacked Miami Marlins | 68c | 36.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 33.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Baltimore Orioles | 78c | 33.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Miami Marlins | 66c | 30.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 21.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Baltimore Orioles | 79c | 21.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami MarlinsBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 13.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.