MLB · resolved market

Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba0cf8cd2031b89ba1eb1fe3386d8963317f9c579fdc834bb6fdc32e5002e18d

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: May 6, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $67,425
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $77,711

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,425 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa710…23c4backed Under	49c	24,591$12,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,049.59	550	53.1%292 W · 258 L	+20.7wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Over	51c	12,000$6,120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,880	151	48.3%73 W · 78 L	-5.4wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6157…9fb4backed Over	48c	10,126$4,878 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,248.06	78	43.6%34 W · 44 L	-6.1wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over	50c	5,000$2,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,500	1,292	50.2%648 W · 644 L	+18.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over	51c	4,517$2,303 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,213.13	11,357	52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L	+209.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under	50c	4,329$2,165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,164.69	1,043	49%511 W · 532 L	+3.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	50c	2,565$1,294 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,271.19	5,401	50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L	+17.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Under	50c	2,463$1,232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,231.63	541	52.1%282 W · 259 L	+12.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4738…4687backed Over	50c	1,986$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$985.52	51	49%25 W · 26 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Under	29c	1,617$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$469.68	2,293	48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L	-24.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Under	49c	1,304$639 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$639.14	891	53.5%477 W · 414 L	+24.2wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed Under	27c	1,033$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.93	32	50%16 W · 16 L	+4.4wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	+59%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Under	48c	826.96$399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.38	2,369	47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Over	52c	800$416 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$384	591	50.3%297 W · 294 L	+9.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under	50c	746.67$376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376.44	1,769	51.6%912 W · 857 L	+16.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	34c	715.05$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.92	8,086	46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L	+29.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Over	51c	691.64$349 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$342.36	1,010	48.1%486 W · 524 L	-13.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Under	50c	624.56$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.63	577	44.7%258 W · 319 L	-6.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Over	49c	612.24$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$312.24	191	53.9%103 W · 88 L	-6.6wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Over	49c	500$245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255	550	52.4%288 W · 262 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over	51c	500$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245	9,728	46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L	+32.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x81f3…1f2abacked Over	51c	388.23$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$190.23	54	46.3%25 W · 29 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under	21c	356.84$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.91	8,295	47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L	+72.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Under	52c	350$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182	770	50.5%389 W · 381 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed Under	48c	334$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.32	496	49.8%247 W · 249 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ac…8de4backed Under	50c	313.54$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.77	185	51.4%95 W · 90 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over	49c	292.41$145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147.7	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over	52c	275.03$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.01	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e4a…eee7backed Under	48c	208.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	308	44.2%136 W · 172 L	-10.4wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Over	77c	203.07$156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.97	3,208	51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L	+146.6wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	382	52.1%199 W · 183 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Over	51c	196$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.04	997	44.1%440 W · 557 L	-38.0wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Under	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,000	52.4%524 W · 476 L	+5.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d14…ff3ebacked Over	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	128	45.3%58 W · 70 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Over	52c	173.08$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.08	443	48.5%215 W · 228 L	-7.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over	54c	152$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.62	8,470	52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L	+510.0wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed Over	51c	151.19$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.08	134	52.2%70 W · 64 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under	50c	148.18$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.09	344	52.6%181 W · 163 L	+6.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x938e…9b66backed Over	48c	125$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65	481	50.7%244 W · 237 L	-19.3wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Under	50c	122$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	283	50.9%144 W · 139 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Over	50c	120$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	781	55.6%434 W · 347 L	+28.9wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Over	51c	120$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.8	1,753	50.8%890 W · 863 L	+29.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ad3…f5d0backed Over	49c	101.02$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.52	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.7wins	-0.19per pick	48cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Over	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.1	827	41.1%340 W · 487 L	-21.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Over	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	1,836	50.8%932 W · 904 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	373	57.4%214 W · 159 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under	50c	83.82$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.91	452	46.2%209 W · 243 L	-18.9wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-11%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over	53c	81.9$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.75	4,478	48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L	-47.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8b9…7a6bbacked Under	15c	81.21$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.42	56	33.9%19 W · 37 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Under	50c	75.22$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.61	271	46.9%127 W · 144 L	-8.1wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa21b…9e94backed Over	48c	72.92$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.92	486	51%248 W · 238 L	-18.0wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Over	51c	67.41$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.23	1,435	50%717 W · 718 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc278…a116backed Over	52c	63.7$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.58	841	40.2%338 W · 503 L	-3.0wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over	51c	63$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.87	1,053	47.3%498 W · 555 L	-14.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ea9…5b98backed Under	50c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	133	53.4%71 W · 62 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over	53c	60$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.2	5,127	54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L	+232.0wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Over	51c	58.99$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.91	722	47.6%344 W · 378 L	-12.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5760…40aabacked Under	50c	54.36$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.18	53	37.7%20 W · 33 L	-7.1wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbc78…f1f5backed Over	48c	52.08$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.08	263	51.3%135 W · 128 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over	50c	52.03$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.02	1,572	48.3%759 W · 813 L	-6.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over	49c	50.78$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.9	619	48.6%301 W · 318 L	+5.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef6…9b93backed Under	50c	50.3$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.15	67	41.8%28 W · 39 L	-6.5wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-20%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd5f5…bb11backed Over	52c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	559	53.1%297 W · 262 L	+10.5wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Over	51c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	1,498	45.3%678 W · 820 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Over	52c	48$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.04	213	53.5%114 W · 99 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8858…ed3ebacked Under	32c	46.48$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	136	41.9%57 W · 79 L	-8.7wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Under	50c	45.76$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.88	524	49%257 W · 267 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82a5…674ebacked Under	30c	42.75$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.97	208	52.9%110 W · 98 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under	51c	42.31$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.79	3,832	42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Over	48c	42.31$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	311	49.2%153 W · 158 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38ba…bcf9backed Over	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+104.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d79…1aabbacked Under	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ac…b73dbacked Under	50c	39.14$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.57	115	51.3%59 W · 56 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5dc…0f05backed Under	50c	36$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	52	53.8%28 W · 24 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Under	48c	35$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	393	44.3%174 W · 219 L	-22.5wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6762…a9a5backed Over	77c	33$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.76	268	53.4%143 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86ee…511fbacked Under	50c	31.36$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.68	243	50.6%123 W · 120 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc96b…438abacked Over	48c	31.25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.25	274	52.6%144 W · 130 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over	51c	25.2$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.35	1,057	50.2%531 W · 526 L	+23.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bbd…98f2backed Over	48c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13	187	51.3%96 W · 91 L	+9.9wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a80…2dadbacked Under	50c	24.59$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	76	52.6%40 W · 36 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94a4…6f8fbacked Under	51c	21.57$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under	52c	21.3$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.02	2,407	48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L	-62.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0271…5673backed Under	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-2.8wins	-0.40per pick	54cpaid	-72%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe779…059cbacked Over	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.5wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+105.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked Over	52c	19.42$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.32	143	53.1%76 W · 67 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5this page
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami MarlinsBaltimore Orioles won
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Over won
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 12.5Under won
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 13.5Under won
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami MarlinsYes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event