TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Matthew Stafford lead the NFL in passing yards this season?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,484
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,419

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,484 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed No0c3,681$12 inLost-$12.485679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes57c947.32$539 inWon+$408.4220238.6%78 W · 124 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe65a…4a49backed Yes77c866.08$669 inWon+$196.93250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1400…d107backed Yes22c291$64 inWon+$226.983100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+145.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No7c261.75$19 inLost-$18.843839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No31c248$77 inLost-$77.1611837.3%44 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No22c239.6$52 inLost-$51.553923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-54.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No49c209.2$103 inLost-$103.429045.6%41 W · 49 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes41c205.81$85 inWon+$120.4929439.5%116 W · 178 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed No6c196.63$11 inLost-$11.24611.6%1 W · 60 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-95.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5fd…b5a8backed No78c154$120 inLost-$120.12250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62d3…daf6backed No78c137$107 inLost-$106.86250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3ad…6866backed No16c93$15 inLost-$14.5955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce23…c7acbacked Yes36c90$32 inWon+$57.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No40c88$35 inLost-$35.0132347.4%153 W · 170 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No57c70$40 inLost-$40.16949.3%34 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x18da…ca1fbacked Yes36c55.7$20 inWon+$35.652100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+105.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5709…cecabacked Yes31c53$16 inWon+$36.572100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+128%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99c4…0c89backed Yes45c44.84$20 inWon+$24.849744.3%43 W · 54 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+18.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9309…2f03backed Yes40c40$16 inWon+$241100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85f7…f9e3backed Yes38c40$15 inWon+$24.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe068…c5eabacked No39c36$14 inLost-$14.071421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-63.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9e61…d77ebacked Yes34c35$12 inWon+$23.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63e3…1078backed No64c34$22 inLost-$21.76250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x49b8…5d19backed No64c31$20 inLost-$19.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6072…286bbacked Yes37c31$11 inWon+$19.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e9f…7eb2backed Yes38c29$11 inWon+$17.982100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeef4…a917backed No51c28.1$14 inLost-$14.243622.2%8 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca07…9227backed No62c27$17 inLost-$16.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8f…9cb1backed No60c26$16 inLost-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8460…f1d5backed No64c25$16 inLost-$16250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67a5…ed56backed No64c22$14 inLost-$14.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x196d…a7efbacked No64c20$13 inLost-$12.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd01…58c5backed No69c20$14 inLost-$13.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d3c…2f1dbacked No64c19$12 inLost-$12.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1c2…2613backed No69c19$13 inLost-$13.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.