Tweets · resolved market
Will Kanye tweet less than 40 times on February 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3eb6f3df3c71ff7825612af938d6667d5dab4a12b89d95f4846a782b15d37586
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 13c | 540$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…3a31backed Yes | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 232.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4c…cf2cbacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dea…c7f7backed Yes | 19c | 134.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb250…078cbacked Yes | 16c | 100.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…3480backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…bc07backed Yes | 19c | 90.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cf…0569backed Yes | 20c | 86.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f7…77c3backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9708backed Yes | 31c | 71.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…294ebacked Yes | 20c | 62.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 71c | 56.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kanye tweet less than 40 times on February 7?this page
- Will Kanye tweet 100-119 times on February 7?No won
- Will Kanye tweet 120-139 times on February 7?No won
- Will Kanye tweet 140-159 times on February 7?Yes won
- Will Kanye tweet 200 or more times on February 7?No won
- Will Kanye tweet 40-59 times on February 7?No won
- Will Kanye tweet 60-79 times on February 7?No won
- Will Kanye tweet 80-99 times on February 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.