Tweets · resolved market
Will Kanye tweet 80-99 times on February 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91f0876cc6b9b5896f9386e66b54af07c94977d5365155c4a58bc58891a5e31b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $160,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $150,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $160,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf007…10b4backed Yes | 0c | 53,048$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.33 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73f1…dde5backed Yes | 0c | 22,014$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 52c | 12,420$6,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,936.13 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +165%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 2c | 12,353$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.49 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe639…082abacked Yes | 36c | 10,000$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3f…4b41backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 20c | 9,444$1,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,526.41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 5c | 7,033$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,711.79 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked No | 71c | 4,373$3,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked Yes | 68c | 3,220$2,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,203.02 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 3,136$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.89 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 3c | 792.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -53%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc45…13bdbacked Yes | 18c | 670.18$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.22 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked No | 12c | 189.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.19 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 144.45$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 26c | 142$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe408…232bbacked Yes | 53c | 140.12$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 65c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 28c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…e408backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Yes | 53c | 30.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kanye tweet 80-99 times on February 7?this page
- Will Kanye tweet 100-119 times on February 7?No won
- Will Kanye tweet 120-139 times on February 7?No won
- Will Kanye tweet 140-159 times on February 7?Yes won
- Will Kanye tweet 200 or more times on February 7?No won
- Will Kanye tweet 40-59 times on February 7?No won
- Will Kanye tweet 60-79 times on February 7?No won
- Will Kanye tweet less than 40 times on February 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.