Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ec362d909fb5a3b2df7d86414e7ded3f438638c68264e1e719f66e72fad4a53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa739…e31abacked No | 2c | 616.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 19c | 615.5$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.03 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 464.18$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 57c | 433.31$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.8 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 4c | 403.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 42c | 356.69$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.69 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 77c | 355.01$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.19 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 11c | 305.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.74 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 272.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 34c | 264.82$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.77 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 16c | 219.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.49 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 9c | 213.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.69 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 10c | 186.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.82 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 186.87$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.1 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 61c | 151.97$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.81 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 149.81$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.92 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 15c | 137.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.25 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.47 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9597…1c14backed Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 66c | 112.45$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.73 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 16c | 110.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.97 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 109.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 102.9$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.13 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.42 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 21c | 96.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.82 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 16c | 96.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.32 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 92.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 90.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.72 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 15c | 88.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.01 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 71c | 82.61$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcda…bb51backed Yes | 70c | 80.86$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b33…044ebacked Yes | 27c | 73.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…76d0backed Yes | 19c | 73.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…0327backed Yes | 31c | 72.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 55c | 71.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 65.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 30c | 61.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 79c | 60.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…60f7backed Yes | 31c | 59.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x260c…4fbcbacked Yes | 22c | 56.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8988…1559backed No | 80c | 50.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6c…9e8dbacked No | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…fa84backed Yes | 34c | 43.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 31c | 40.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fe…8509backed Yes | 25c | 40.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…2a29backed Yes | 32c | 38.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -71%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 34c | 35.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 41c | 35.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 33c | 34.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 40c | 34.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 70c | 29.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed Yes | 76c | 29.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 51c | 28.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 79c | 25.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 69c | 25.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed No | 44c | 22.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 76c | 20.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb316…7ea8backed No | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…9ffabacked Yes | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 13°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.