Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a822391464c2ed42e0ecfd7068f06ac14c69fa465a7fab91c37bd181fc17d6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf516…79a0backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 539$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked No | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 67c | 275.92$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.62 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 269.1$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe70…5f45backed Yes | 42c | 235.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 67c | 214.99$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.19 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 8c | 166.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 35c | 159.44$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 55c | 149.98$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.79 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 61c | 148.56$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9597…1c14backed Yes | 45c | 136.01$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 127.24$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 35c | 125$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b33…044ebacked Yes | 42c | 120.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0b7ebacked Yes | 45c | 110.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 110.52$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 48c | 106.39$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd91…03cbbacked Yes | 11c | 99.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 39c | 99.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 88.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 87.55$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 32c | 85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 24c | 81.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 76.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 50c | 76.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…296bbacked Yes | 24c | 76.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 36c | 69.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…d81dbacked Yes | 41c | 68.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 66c | 60.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 41c | 60.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68e5…c48dbacked No | 57c | 60.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…cb87backed Yes | 35c | 58.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 70c | 55.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 39c | 53.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 45c | 51.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x327d…977bbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 47.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 55c | 45.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 43.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe2…eb81backed Yes | 37c | 42.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 48c | 41.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 38c | 36.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 32c | 35.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 34.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 51c | 27.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 65c | 22.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 61c | 21.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…b625backed Yes | 50c | 21.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…0cf9backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…5317backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f9…d925backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 67c | 19.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…d28fbacked No | 66c | 16.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 13°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on March 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.