Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x590134cf8c465c31a4c82d972ec9e0979c39363c68c5201f9272e55dffa42e9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 487$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 31c | 403.65$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.86 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 364.34$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 297.79$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.66 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 34c | 204.21$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.96 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcecf…15d0backed No | 72c | 193.92$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 31c | 164.07$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 65c | 157.18$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 22c | 154$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 36c | 152.78$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 140.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae8…59aabacked Yes | 19c | 135.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 36c | 134.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 34c | 128.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 22c | 125$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9597…1c14backed Yes | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 118.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 67c | 114.25$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 36c | 108.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 71c | 105.39$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 32c | 103.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 32c | 100.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 29c | 95.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a42…9390backed Yes | 38c | 94.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 90.84$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 33c | 90.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 31c | 88.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…68f9backed Yes | 29c | 78.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 38c | 78.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 64c | 76.55$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 75c | 72.64$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 71c | 68.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 31c | 63.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 22c | 62.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 61.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 56.73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a37…1059backed Yes | 36c | 55.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 54.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…d308backed Yes | 23c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fd…977cbacked Yes | 32c | 50.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…227bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 29c | 49.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 31c | 46.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 28c | 45.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 73c | 45.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 67c | 44.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed No | 68c | 42.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9912…8116backed Yes | 29c | 40.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 31c | 35.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…1929backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 21.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 71c | 20.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 13°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on March 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.