MLB · resolved market
Royals vs. Orioles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ed82566f3c0ae637ab5fa7d81e2b7b3e77bfeb5f2278ca5333e8c534b1cfabb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Royalsof Royals, Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Orioles | 55c | 5,555$3,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,055.24 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Orioles | 54c | 3,829$2,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,084.98 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Royals | 47c | 3,615$1,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,900.87 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Royals | 45c | 3,387$1,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,862.92 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Royals | 45c | 3,235$1,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,779.25 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Orioles | 54c | 1,023$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.72 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Orioles | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57e9…df05backed Royals | 43c | 935.74$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.74 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Orioles | 54c | 699.64$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.18 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Royals | 45c | 625.58$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.07 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Royals | 63c | 607.23$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.23 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Royals | 37c | 569.52$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.65 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Royals | 44c | 568.18$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.18 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Orioles | 57c | 488.5$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.96 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Royals | 39c | 384.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.62 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Royals | 57c | 375.88$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.88 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Orioles | 42c | 332.22$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.52 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Orioles | 44c | 300.1$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.82 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Royals | 59c | 277$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.57 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…d23bbacked Royals | 76c | 255$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Royals | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Royals | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Royals | 40c | 167$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.2 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Royals | 46c | 67.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Orioles | 54c | 67.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Orioles | 58c | 65.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Orioles | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Royals | 45c | 51.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Royals | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Orioles | 29c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 248 | 8.9%22 W · 226 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Royals | 44c | 33.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Royals | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…cae4backed Royals | 36c | 30.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Orioles | 56c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Orioles | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.