Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-03-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ee022f6cd367c58aa7d2af02e8b975295b16751df444be49b8fbaed8cfb4136
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,265 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb904…c255backed Yes | 19c | 16,134$3,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,065.46 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 4c | 16,118$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.31 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 12c | 6,143$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.96 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…af18backed Yes | 3c | 5,580$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed Yes | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Yes | 19c | 3,417$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.23 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b93…e941backed Yes | 19c | 3,335$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.32 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 18c | 3,333$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.94 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 20c | 1,757$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.52 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…9caebacked Yes | 17c | 1,473$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 9c | 1,118$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.32 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 4c | 1,008$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 16c | 580.45$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 7c | 454.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…d92dbacked Yes | 5c | 427.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 18c | 416.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 17c | 399.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…625dbacked Yes | 16c | 360.02$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 17c | 312$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…7976backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecad…875cbacked Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…3accbacked Yes | 18c | 274.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…cb8fbacked Yes | 18c | 269.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 34cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…b945backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Yes | 5c | 249.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…a05cbacked Yes | 18c | 248.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x782b…ff64backed Yes | 8c | 225$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…0366backed Yes | 16c | 210.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes | 17c | 205.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…5401backed Yes | 20c | 180$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 17c | 161.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…1be7backed Yes | 17c | 150.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5f…ced0backed Yes | 8c | 132.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -60%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…2ce9backed Yes | 8c | 132.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…4568backed Yes | 10c | 132$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d1…356dbacked Yes | 19c | 105.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…1a43backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 15c | 91.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x657b…423cbacked Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…5f62backed Yes | 20c | 78.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a22…9f35backed Yes | 20c | 77.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 18c | 77.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked No | 80c | 72.87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c662backed Yes | 20c | 61.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 17c | 61.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1b…3b5bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…9b55backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 80c | 42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-03-14?this page
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw?No won
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-03-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.