Venezuela · resolved market
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ee650b834febebb50938d229c9f6cd2740135d4dbc35124527b94b9babed1a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d6d…1ba1backed No | 28c | 3,579$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 23c | 2,454$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.25 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 74c | 2,019$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked No | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,419$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 21c | 1,003$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.52 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…1015backed Yes | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…d704backed No | 26c | 926.49$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.56 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed Yes | 70c | 848.5$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.49 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 70c | 762.23$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.36 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 74c | 752.93$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.68 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 77c | 650$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde03…e629backed Yes | 76c | 520$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -56%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 36c | 402.85$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.2 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…067ebacked Yes | 70c | 250$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 78c | 249.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b3…28a1backed No | 28c | 248.42$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 76c | 238.62$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 71c | 232$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.28 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8063…b886backed Yes | 69c | 220$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +8.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 76c | 219.52$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.66 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa598…2ff3backed No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 22c | 199.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe052…3108backed No | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 77c | 180$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 76c | 121.4$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 61cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a16…d869backed No | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f4…3d96backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4d…d77fbacked Yes | 79c | 90.47$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +105%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7352…6adbbacked No | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed Yes | 68c | 79.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed Yes | 74c | 71.45$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6653…4f3dbacked No | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc324…2ad7backed Yes | 78c | 64.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80df…3407backed No | 22c | 63.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb186…310cbacked Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 60.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x840d…eddbbacked Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be8…7a36backed No | 22c | 53.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x806f…7a14backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x494c…1084backed No | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…8336backed Yes | 79c | 42.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…abe0backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…0e07backed Yes | 66c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51a0…436bbacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4edb…84ebbacked Yes | 78c | 26.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…6f83backed Yes | 78c | 25.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b4…efc6backed Yes | 77c | 22.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 75c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +123.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f06…2614backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…f56bbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 14?this page
- Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 7?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.