Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on January 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3eee6588608ee973a3136a013eb84952cbdbdcd336b9e489ce9f628548cd4bec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb905…1640backed Yes | 79c | 554.26$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.93 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 66c | 335.11$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.37 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f67…0d67backed Yes | 58c | 275.04$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.93 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed43…c88ebacked No | 47c | 216.61$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 5c | 215$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 71c | 152.22$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2871…844fbacked Yes | 23c | 140.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…b979backed Yes | 18c | 135.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.3 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 21c | 127.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0a…96eabacked Yes | 46c | 113.29$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.26 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 68cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…ad70backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 78c | 91.53$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…224dbacked Yes | 26c | 81.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34c6…ec31backed Yes | 24c | 76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.04 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 19cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 112 | 28.6%32 W · 80 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 26c | 66.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb24c…31febacked Yes | 45c | 64.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6819…3775backed No | 29c | 57.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…00b3backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…e1d0backed No | 80c | 49.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd91f…200dbacked Yes | 36c | 40.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd1…2f2cbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 38.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x606c…5d56backed Yes | 52c | 38.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb6…735cbacked Yes | 38c | 37.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa4…9608backed Yes | 54c | 37.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 80c | 36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…4519backed No | 40c | 35.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9f2ebacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad3…431bbacked Yes | 35c | 32.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…ca6dbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed Yes | 46c | 29.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 77c | 25.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa939…7b0dbacked No | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 53c | 19.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 19.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4d…0e7fbacked Yes | 65c | 16.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab3…2fcfbacked No | 72c | 16.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…2138backed No | 71c | 16.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc6…0c98backed No | 64c | 15.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ad…9748backed No | 65c | 15.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on January 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 52°F or higher on January 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on January 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on January 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on January 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.