Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on January 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9465d74479d7610bf08bd734661ef0923f8ec665234a009572380d76da546b09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe946…45a0backed Yes | 0c | 17,626$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 3c | 4,496$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.65 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 1c | 2,300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa25c…3badbacked Yes | 2c | 1,320$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 1,300$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,250$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.45 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…fe39backed Yes | 6c | 1,198$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.29 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,030$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.42 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 4c | 532.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 460.42$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.38 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9d…4de9backed Yes | 6c | 343.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 263$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa933…4e84backed Yes | 27c | 243.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed43…c88ebacked Yes | 11c | 167$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 114.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x34c6…ec31backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 19cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedaa…89b4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb449…1a89backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 34c | 79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf26e…23c1backed Yes | 41c | 77.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 24c | 70.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b74…6516backed No | 72c | 58.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe490…f299backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0c…43aabacked Yes | 47c | 42.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd962…1d5cbacked Yes | 27c | 38.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 69c | 34.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x886b…73d1backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 54c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf302…3603backed No | 80c | 17.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a9…41fcbacked No | 80c | 17.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb49…bea9backed No | 80c | 15.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 14.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca62…65e7backed No | 80c | 13.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a6…804ebacked No | 80c | 13.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on January 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 52°F or higher on January 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on January 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on January 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on January 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.