MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f27bd5d1863db8b42e78309538529cec6938983d359806ab15b355f6e326985
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 45c | 80,519$36,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,180.41 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 55c | 36,546$20,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,445.87 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 55c | 12,718$6,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,724.01 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 55c | 9,095$5,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,092.83 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 55c | 6,800$3,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,060 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 64c | 3,852$2,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385.87 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 55c | 3,750$2,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,687.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 55c | 2,222$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.9 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 1,884$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.01 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb638…20b0backed Over | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.18 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -6.7wins | -0.35per pick | 51cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 45c | 1,333$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 56c | 1,315$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.81 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 55c | 1,250$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.5 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f8…e851backed Over | 56c | 1,111$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.09 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 56c | 934.84$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.87 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 55c | 909.74$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.38 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 55c | 727.14$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.58 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 45c | 503.21$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.35 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Over | 55c | 454$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.3 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 45c | 390$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.5 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa522…2c26backed Over | 73c | 335$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 55c | 316.92$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.63 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 56c | 222.02$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.57 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 73c | 181.81$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 55c | 127.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.52 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 55c | 99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 56c | 96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 57c | 91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…430ebacked Under | 45c | 87.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 56c | 75.86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 56c | 69.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…9642backed Under | 46c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -8.9wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Under | 45c | 43.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 57c | 37.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 55c | 33.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Under | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Over | 55c | 20.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White SoxNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 12.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.