MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcccb7651aa8b76dfb61074ab0b097e213118d4ad03962f60ce8f35c1e76cf44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 2,271$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.79 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 53c | 1,709$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.85 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 49c | 816.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.33 | 384 | 53.6%206 W · 178 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 774.3$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.41 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 56c | 753.56$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.65 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 64c | 709.78$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.81 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb638…20b0backed Under | 57c | 701.75$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -6.7wins | -0.35per pick | 51cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7a26…1589backed Under | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 53c | 559.5$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.36 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 53c | 506.45$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.48 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed Under | 18c | 489.96$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 48c | 435.21$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.9 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 52c | 435.21$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.9 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 49c | 327.94$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.25 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 52c | 261.17$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.95 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 53c | 156.07$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.87 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 47c | 108.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39bd…35dabacked Over | 48c | 81.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 53c | 78.05$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 583 | 58.5%341 W · 242 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Under | 68c | 73.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 73c | 64.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 45.5%66 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…4b43backed Over | 49c | 35.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 53c | 32.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Over | 58c | 20.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07b…6ee4backed Over | 54c | 20.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…d3dbbacked Over | 53c | 19.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Over | 53c | 18.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White SoxNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 12.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.