Fifa International · resolved market
Ecuador vs. Germany: Second half draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f3c6076caa7d4a25c6f47d51d824a5834bdd0b7b0743fef8a47fc06e396c8d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 2,467$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.12 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 31c | 2,121$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.82 | 1,559 | 52.4%817 W · 742 L | +97.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 70c | 1,294$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.91 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cec…4043backed Yes | 28c | 1,054$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Yes | 35c | 633.98$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.52 | 770 | 51.3%395 W · 375 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 64c | 475.19$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.22 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 29c | 462$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.56 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 72c | 410.62$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.98 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…03d4backed Yes | 30c | 397.36$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 192 | 50%96 W · 96 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 67c | 379.09$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.96 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Yes | 35c | 369.51$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.17 | 791 | 49.2%389 W · 402 L | +28.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Yes | 32c | 276$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.11 | 415 | 51.8%215 W · 200 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 64c | 235.46$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 1,114 | 49.4%550 W · 564 L | +57.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked No | 70c | 189$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.06 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ceb…609dbacked Yes | 29c | 177.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 30c | 157$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 1,475 | 44.9%663 W · 812 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Yes | 33c | 153.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 455 | 48.6%221 W · 234 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 65c | 145.65$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 68c | 108$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 1,492 | 41%612 W · 880 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked No | 69c | 105$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 245 | 41.2%101 W · 144 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba9…9d42backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x131a…73f9backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 19c | 95.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9516…0bcbbacked Yes | 28c | 70.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 562 | 40.6%228 W · 334 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b6…e0a0backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 67.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed No | 71c | 62.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 617 | 52%321 W · 296 L | -13.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Yes | 29c | 60.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 264 | 49.2%130 W · 134 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 71c | 59.11$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 343 | 30%103 W · 240 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 25c | 50.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Yes | 31c | 42.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 126 | 53.2%67 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 32c | 41.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba56…140dbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +8.6wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 38c | 36.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 272 | 55.9%152 W · 120 L | +36.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc3…d8e9backed No | 74c | 31.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2763…abe6backed Yes | 34c | 29.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Yes | 36c | 28.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 197 | 54.3%107 W · 90 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcedd…0dd4backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Second half draw?this page
- Ecuador to win the second half?Yes won
- Germany to win the second half?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.