Fifa International · resolved market
Germany to win the second half?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd75699040e551d98f40b15688f7a121051d3f5477d52b8be4aac9f0809e6fae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked No | 46c | 34,377$15,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,490.11 | 342 | 49.1%168 W · 174 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 54c | 19,327$10,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,430.17 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 53c | 11,287$6,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,017.53 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…91e7backed Yes | 47c | 9,000$4,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,257.68 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed No | 52c | 4,730$2,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,270.27 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 50c | 2,568$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296.44 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…044abacked No | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.99 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked Yes | 56c | 1,500$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 47c | 1,225$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.15 | 343 | 30%103 W · 240 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked No | 51c | 1,182$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.14 | 580 | 49.1%285 W · 295 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 57c | 1,132$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.98 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe250…ea7abacked Yes | 45c | 1,105$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed Yes | 52c | 974.15$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.82 | 617 | 52%321 W · 296 L | -13.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked No | 46c | 963.98$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.63 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Yes | 53c | 952.34$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 224 | 48.2%108 W · 116 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 47c | 898$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.94 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…3206backed No | 47c | 839.93$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.16 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…04d4backed Yes | 55c | 800$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 47c | 651.34$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.21 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 50c | 619.91$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.36 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…0aa4backed Yes | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbc…5dcebacked No | 44c | 515.9$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.9 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…3cbebacked Yes | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c1…0ddfbacked Yes | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8494…814abacked Yes | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde41…58bdbacked Yes | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d3…c92fbacked Yes | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae7d…058fbacked Yes | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x414c…80c7backed Yes | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe96f…22a2backed Yes | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes | 57c | 400$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe668…8a94backed Yes | 46c | 393.78$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.14 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 50c | 350$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.5 | 1,475 | 44.9%663 W · 812 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x929d…2834backed Yes | 53c | 331.66$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.08 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc2…a9ebbacked No | 57c | 323.75$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.53 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 53c | 296.65$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.54 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 53c | 296.02$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.29 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 53c | 295.16$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.29 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed No | 56c | 249.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…ee15backed No | 46c | 195.25$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.74 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3439…930fbacked Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84a2…e0b6backed No | 49c | 187$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.37 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 54c | 181.22$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.36 | 1,669 | 41.6%694 W · 975 L | +15.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 46c | 152.97$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.38 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 8c | 151.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff7…bf32backed No | 59c | 141.88$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.17 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +14.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 55c | 139.23$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.15 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed No | 55c | 127.76$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.49 | 534 | 48.5%259 W · 275 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 44c | 115$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 1,492 | 41%612 W · 880 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 44c | 114$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b6…e8babacked No | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…425ebacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x131a…73f9backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked No | 52c | 97.79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 825 | 37.1%306 W · 519 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 94.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ba…e2b1backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b89…87babacked Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 90$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab6a…61a5backed Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 42c | 67.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c8…7c4cbacked No | 47c | 62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 618 | 55.3%342 W · 276 L | +23.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1,114 | 49.4%550 W · 564 L | +57.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…6e47backed Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 150 | 42%63 W · 87 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…2888backed Yes | 54c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 272 | 27.6%75 W · 197 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Yes | 45c | 43.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…eb8ebacked Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb35c…f2c1backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…800dbacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…bad3backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…583cbacked Yes | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 927 | 32.1%298 W · 629 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked No | 47c | 31.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 1,240 | 43.7%542 W · 698 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…6537backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed No | 49c | 30.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 48c | 29.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…08f4backed Yes | 53c | 28.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.37per pick | 48cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd54e…2e45backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…e36bbacked Yes | 54c | 24.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 785 | 59.7%469 W · 316 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…35acbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…c131backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Germany to win the second half?this page
- Ecuador to win the second half?Yes won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Second half draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.