College Football · resolved market
Central Michigan vs. San José State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f4a7612dfb7aea30503901f732aeca0663b7f0709fcc9f683e2eba934f60448
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Central Michiganof Central Michigan, San José State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked San José State | 64c | 21,979$14,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,151.99 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Central Michigan | 16c | 9,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,559.92 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7435…a620backed San José State | 64c | 7,833$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed San José State | 64c | 3,117$1,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,988.39 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed San José State | 66c | 2,713$1,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,804.02 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…1211backed Central Michigan | 53c | 2,674$1,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,252 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Central Michigan | 16c | 2,569$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,157.59 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Central Michigan | 33c | 2,248$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,501.08 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Central Michigan | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,679.88 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Central Michigan | 37c | 1,762$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,107.4 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Central Michigan | 18c | 1,500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230.08 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c8…1ee0backed San José State | 72c | 1,370$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed San José State | 50c | 1,276$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.45 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Central Michigan | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Central Michigan | 22c | 959.81$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.65 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Central Michigan | 52c | 802.99$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.82 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Central Michigan | 37c | 792.45$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.09 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Central Michigan | 32c | 768$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.13 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed San José State | 2c | 721.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…5d9ebacked San José State | 63c | 551.4$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…2223backed Central Michigan | 40c | 536.5$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7d…0a62backed San José State | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Central Michigan | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…f3e1backed Central Michigan | 44c | 489.22$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Central Michigan | 42c | 395.4$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Central Michigan | 48c | 381.78$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.1 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Central Michigan | 28c | 366.43$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.96 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked San José State | 13c | 355.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Central Michigan | 48c | 346.15$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Central Michigan | 17c | 300$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Central Michigan | 16c | 300$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +8.9wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x40f3…cdbbbacked Central Michigan | 37c | 296.44$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Central Michigan | 30c | 296.14$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.14 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Central Michigan | 57c | 266.2$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.28 | 61 | 70.5%43 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf16…a240backed Central Michigan | 42c | 238.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.85 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6278…57e6backed Central Michigan | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Central Michigan | 29c | 209.18$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.52 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Central Michigan | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 94 | 20.2%19 W · 75 L | -8.0wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x419d…7817backed Central Michigan | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed San José State | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e9…3166backed Central Michigan | 61c | 120.59$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Central Michigan | 17c | 119.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…1d65backed Central Michigan | 33c | 119.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 58cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Central Michigan | 18c | 113.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.55 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Central Michigan | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed San José State | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Central Michigan | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Central Michigan | 17c | 99.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.35 | 184 | 16.8%31 W · 153 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71c…3b29backed Central Michigan | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Central Michigan | 41c | 85.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c23…9bffbacked San José State | 67c | 74.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked San José State | 80c | 74$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae3f…12fabacked Central Michigan | 20c | 73.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Central Michigan | 29c | 72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.36 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee5…ca6bbacked Central Michigan | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5916…a87cbacked Central Michigan | 74c | 35.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed San José State | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed San José State | 62c | 22.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aec…4508backed San José State | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Central Michigan | 69c | 19.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.