Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f7868ddca20c8e168922e696d007a940d12a4a6547c9f56da4330bbc26e7f02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7221…83c6backed Yes | 38c | 2,456$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe574…3e24backed No | 62c | 1,237$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x861b…a791backed No | 62c | 1,219$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 7c | 755.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 13c | 754.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 13c | 559.96$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 42c | 408.52$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.57 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes | 35c | 340.86$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.95 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 33c | 230.1$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.41 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 40c | 222.35$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 204.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 65c | 201.27$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.53 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…1174backed Yes | 57c | 183.77$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.41 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 178.95$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 7c | 160$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 60c | 153.54$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.89 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 15c | 145.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 71c | 141$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.71 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed No | 73c | 139.07$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 133.75$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 62c | 130.63$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…4415backed Yes | 39c | 129.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 109.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 63c | 107.59$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 24c | 102.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…d23abacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 55c | 99.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 40c | 99.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.73 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 46c | 96.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 93$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 24c | 92.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 36c | 87.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 84.35$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…54acbacked Yes | 66c | 81.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 44c | 81.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 63c | 78.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 40c | 74.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 70.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 21c | 65.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed No | 50c | 64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked No | 57c | 60.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 48c | 58.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 71c | 55.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 46c | 52.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…09bdbacked Yes | 39c | 51.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 48c | 49.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 33c | 49.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 52c | 49.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 47c | 45.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…375abacked No | 63c | 39.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 25c | 39.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 65c | 38.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 52c | 38.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa3…5a51backed No | 50c | 37.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed No | 73c | 34.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 65c | 31.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 65c | 30.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…644fbacked No | 57c | 30.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 59c | 30.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…e3babacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2d…2ca1backed No | 57c | 29.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb357…1f3abacked Yes | 46c | 29.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…5cb9backed Yes | 59c | 29.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 53c | 26.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 40c | 25.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaaa…1d0ebacked Yes | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.22per pick | 46cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…5d3dbacked No | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 63c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c7…b2e1backed No | 55c | 21.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 75c | 20.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.