Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ed94dbacc9ac0655b8b65843521618a51ce391ea031db64f75f594336bc1e0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4d4…92aebacked Yes | 35c | 2,743$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,782.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…69f8backed No | 65c | 1,384$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b0…2695backed No | 65c | 1,359$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 6c | 1,013$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 12c | 915.61$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 4c | 885.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 29c | 828.63$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.4 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 607.02$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 592.69$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed No | 15c | 542.03$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.79 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 6c | 500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 65c | 493.85$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.82 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 75c | 387.91$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.71 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 30c | 200$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 61c | 178.7$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.96 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 178.47$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 62c | 160.96$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.34 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…0341backed Yes | 69c | 145.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa3…5a51backed No | 71c | 143$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.53 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed No | 8c | 139.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked No | 15c | 135.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 65c | 128.39$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 119.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 25c | 117.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 54c | 114.7$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 67c | 104.93$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 59c | 101.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.42 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…d23abacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 29c | 92.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.63 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 39c | 90$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 16c | 88.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.95 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 32c | 83.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 27c | 78.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.47 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 77.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 37c | 74.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked Yes | 42c | 73.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a3…fa3cbacked No | 74c | 67.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 16c | 67.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 20c | 67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf26b…cd52backed Yes | 40c | 65.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 37c | 65.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes | 41c | 63.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 48c | 63.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc156…08bfbacked Yes | 52c | 57.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…abccbacked Yes | 36c | 57.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 31c | 56.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 33c | 55.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 43c | 54.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 38c | 52.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a8…bcf2backed Yes | 51c | 49.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 56c | 48.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 35c | 43.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes | 70c | 43.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6f…f5f0backed Yes | 35c | 42.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…5cb9backed Yes | 39c | 38.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 29c | 37.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb879…aa96backed Yes | 45c | 32.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 37c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed Yes | 76c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…e3babacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa251…5df0backed Yes | 60c | 27.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 64c | 27.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b66…3907backed Yes | 40c | 26.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed Yes | 68c | 26.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd5…5551backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…959ebacked Yes | 40c | 25.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 63c | 25.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf70f…1b9abacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 73cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 66c | 24.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked No | 64c | 23.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 63c | 22.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 60c | 17.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.