UFC · resolved market
Will Michael Oliveira win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f797914b5708c72958c7fac6e180621fc767f45f98c2531a2a2f1d505b7b716
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ca4…50d4backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed No | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Yes | 58c | 326.19$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed No | 39c | 290.16$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.16 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Yes | 58c | 144.45$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.67 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3f…3c49backed Yes | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +60%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74b6…dc95backed Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 40c | 45.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…79e0backed Yes | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 37c | 40.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 223 | 48.4%108 W · 115 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8777…9b72backed Yes | 63c | 40.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked No | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…a9bfbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c1…026dbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…98b0backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 38c | 29.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 159 | 60.4%96 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…8c11backed Yes | 62c | 29.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Michael Oliveira win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Oban Elliott vs. Michael Oliveira (Welterweight, Prelims)Michael Oliveira won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.