UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8690f73f36a1fcfdc0c43e1935ca4a7ebb8a948976d69d10f678ca96473f1f75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $130,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 66c | 70,023$46,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,210.02 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 62c | 50,594$31,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,368.71 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Under | 34c | 40,000$13,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,400 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4301…f601backed Under | 38c | 13,035$4,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,081.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b9…79a2backed Under | 38c | 12,870$4,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,979.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…1bedbacked Under | 38c | 11,892$4,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,373.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c5…6930backed Under | 38c | 11,570$4,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,173.39 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x656a…6077backed Under | 34c | 10,467$3,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,908.22 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…98c0backed Under | 38c | 4,993$1,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,095.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 34c | 4,193$1,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,770.59 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c9…a452backed Under | 34c | 3,080$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,032.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…af95backed Under | 34c | 2,110$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,392.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3116…b30dbacked Under | 34c | 1,951$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,287.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef4f…4598backed Under | 34c | 1,813$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.74 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Under | 34c | 1,765$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.71 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 36c | 941.27$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.87 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 67c | 666.89$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.7 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a1…e38bbacked Under | 34c | 583.18$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Over | 67c | 502.99$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…50d4backed Over | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…a142backed Under | 34c | 489$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4fa9backed Over | 62c | 485.61$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Under | 34c | 414$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.24 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 63c | 403.99$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.2 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Over | 62c | 400$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Over | 67c | 300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…0e4cbacked Over | 67c | 295.52$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Under | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…b9f5backed Under | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 33c | 250.13$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.59 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffa…f32ebacked Under | 40c | 247.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.31 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Under | 38c | 237.26$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.1 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf20…1881backed Over | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc475…8eefbacked Under | 38c | 171.05$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.05 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cab…f595backed Under | 35c | 170.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +114.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…68e2backed Over | 67c | 119.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc88e…7643backed Under | 34c | 108.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 31cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…986cbacked Under | 34c | 103.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.63 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…0f59backed Over | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…e7d8backed Under | 34c | 48.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +153.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x453b…6660backed Over | 63c | 46.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 67c | 45.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb00…780cbacked Over | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 61c | 37.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…2b21backed Under | 39c | 37.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 33c | 30.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f3…0a58backed Over | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9eb…75cebacked Over | 67c | 26.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 67c | 22.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 65c | 15.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 138 | 36.2%50 W · 88 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Oban Elliott vs. Michael Oliveira (Welterweight, Prelims)Michael Oliveira won
- Will Michael Oliveira win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.