UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Oban Elliott vs. Michael Oliveira (Welterweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45b91df7548e593978d3bb9bfba3630066d84ce7b9e897e793bba0e1016557c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michael Oliveiraof Oban Elliott, Michael Oliveira
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $482,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $531,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $482,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Oban Elliott | 24c | 333,696$78,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78,680.83 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Michael Oliveira | 77c | 144,745$110,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,836.55 | 154 | 44.2%68 W · 86 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2f…2ca8backed Michael Oliveira | 76c | 100,001$76,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,737.15 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4301…f601backed Michael Oliveira | 76c | 24,200$18,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,808 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Oban Elliott | 7c | 20,033$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.5 | 155 | 37.4%58 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Oban Elliott | 21c | 13,317$2,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,848.33 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Michael Oliveira | 76c | 11,842$9,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,842.11 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed Michael Oliveira | 76c | 11,101$8,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,664.18 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…2b38backed Michael Oliveira | 75c | 9,276$6,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,319.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…d9a3backed Michael Oliveira | 78c | 8,974$7,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,974.36 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc38…3c4cbacked Michael Oliveira | 76c | 8,800$6,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,112 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Michael Oliveira | 78c | 8,497$6,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,884.35 | 130 | 39.2%51 W · 79 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfe…2d74backed Michael Oliveira | 76c | 8,474$6,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,033.75 | 61 | 72.1%44 W · 17 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Oban Elliott | 25c | 8,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Michael Oliveira | 77c | 7,705$5,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,772.08 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Oban Elliott | 23c | 6,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,379.98 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Oban Elliott | 22c | 5,849$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.84 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…6f94backed Oban Elliott | 23c | 5,157$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.06 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Michael Oliveira | 77c | 5,000$3,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e37…6789backed Michael Oliveira | 78c | 4,872$3,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.79 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +63%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Michael Oliveira | 76c | 3,907$2,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.68 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Oban Elliott | 23c | 3,682$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.87 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…01a8backed Oban Elliott | 23c | 3,615$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.55 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Michael Oliveira | 76c | 2,748$2,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.56 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d9…a1b2backed Michael Oliveira | 76c | 2,593$1,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9480…7456backed Michael Oliveira | 78c | 2,564$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.1 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Michael Oliveira | 78c | 2,257$1,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.64 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…519dbacked Michael Oliveira | 77c | 2,155$1,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.58 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Oban Elliott | 23c | 2,080$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.4 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Michael Oliveira | 75c | 2,076$1,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.89 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Michael Oliveira | 76c | 1,940$1,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.53 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…408dbacked Michael Oliveira | 76c | 1,858$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.67 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Oban Elliott | 10c | 1,800$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…5a59backed Oban Elliott | 22c | 1,711$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.41 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed Michael Oliveira | 78c | 1,669$1,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.9 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Oban Elliott | 25c | 1,637$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Oban Elliott | 25c | 1,610$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.94 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Michael Oliveira | 76c | 1,600$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…d08bbacked Michael Oliveira | 76c | 1,460$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.76 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Oban Elliott | 11c | 1,451$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.64 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d91…201bbacked Michael Oliveira | 77c | 1,264$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd485…3b87backed Michael Oliveira | 77c | 1,262$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4fa9backed Oban Elliott | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…2bafbacked Michael Oliveira | 77c | 1,015$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.75 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Oban Elliott | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Oban Elliott | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffb3…081ebacked Oban Elliott | 13c | 900$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…9251backed Michael Oliveira | 76c | 849.98$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…4030backed Oban Elliott | 24c | 833.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Oban Elliott | 24c | 833.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…3426backed Oban Elliott | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 141 | 32.6%46 W · 95 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Michael Oliveira | 75c | 771.91$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.98 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…ae96backed Oban Elliott | 24c | 715.17$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec5a…2e90backed Michael Oliveira | 77c | 649.35$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.35 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…68e2backed Oban Elliott | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…ddf6backed Michael Oliveira | 77c | 584.42$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a35…a978backed Michael Oliveira | 77c | 518.18$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.18 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…884ebacked Michael Oliveira | 80c | 503.25$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.4 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7650…fac1backed Michael Oliveira | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 61 | 72.1%44 W · 17 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Oban Elliott | 8c | 493.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 159 | 33.3%53 W · 106 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf202…4322backed Michael Oliveira | 77c | 440.7$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.36 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Oban Elliott | 4c | 428.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96ea…639abacked Oban Elliott | 24c | 422.13$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.31 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4102…731abacked Oban Elliott | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Michael Oliveira | 76c | 406.17$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.48 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Michael Oliveira | 76c | 399.98$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5db…5800backed Michael Oliveira | 77c | 389.61$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 69cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x721e…3439backed Michael Oliveira | 76c | 389.61$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.51 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…e86dbacked Michael Oliveira | 78c | 384.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 156 | 56.4%88 W · 68 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Michael Oliveira | 78c | 384.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb602…c7f9backed Michael Oliveira | 76c | 366.4$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.66 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Michael Oliveira | 78c | 360$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…6c1dbacked Michael Oliveira | 77c | 359.26$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.63 | 65 | 69.2%45 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…ad73backed Michael Oliveira | 76c | 312.78$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.07 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Oban Elliott | 25c | 301$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.25 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed Oban Elliott | 24c | 295.29$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f76…dcc9backed Oban Elliott | 7c | 292.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc76e…acb0backed Michael Oliveira | 77c | 283.09$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed Michael Oliveira | 75c | 279.8$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.95 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Michael Oliveira | 77c | 262$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x174e…6eb7backed Michael Oliveira | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0afd…10fcbacked Michael Oliveira | 77c | 243.46$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed6c…d0bbbacked Oban Elliott | 23c | 223.59$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…0e4cbacked Oban Elliott | 25c | 216$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9874…2e27backed Oban Elliott | 24c | 210$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Michael Oliveira | 75c | 203.34$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Oban Elliott | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…6ea2backed Oban Elliott | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb00…780cbacked Oban Elliott | 25c | 197.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718f…f25abacked Michael Oliveira | 77c | 194.81$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…4a56backed Oban Elliott | 24c | 180.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…b4a5backed Michael Oliveira | 78c | 180.32$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe650…0944backed Oban Elliott | 23c | 174.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Oban Elliott | 25c | 161.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ae…1b3dbacked Michael Oliveira | 76c | 159.87$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +6.6wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Michael Oliveira | 76c | 152.4$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Oban Elliott | 22c | 137.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x704d…9483backed Michael Oliveira | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…8008backed Michael Oliveira | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb2…126abacked Michael Oliveira | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Oban Elliott vs. Michael Oliveira (Welterweight, Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Michael Oliveira win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.