TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Oban Elliott vs. Michael Oliveira (Welterweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Michael Oliveiraof Oban Elliott, Michael Oliveira
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$482,297
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$531,489

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $482,297 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa710…23c4backed Oban Elliott24c333,696$78,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78,680.8316244.4%72 W · 90 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Michael Oliveira77c144,745$110,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,836.5515444.2%68 W · 86 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Michael Oliveira76c100,001$76,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,737.1513452.2%70 W · 64 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4301…f601backed Michael Oliveira76c24,200$18,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,808650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Oban Elliott7c20,033$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.515537.4%58 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Oban Elliott21c13,317$2,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,848.3320248.5%98 W · 104 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Michael Oliveira76c11,842$9,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,842.118360.2%50 W · 33 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Michael Oliveira76c11,101$8,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,664.181844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-34.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2759…2b38backed Michael Oliveira75c9,276$6,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,319.11520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-73.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8239…d9a3backed Michael Oliveira78c8,974$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,974.363857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc38…3c4cbacked Michael Oliveira76c8,800$6,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,112757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Michael Oliveira78c8,497$6,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,884.3513039.2%51 W · 79 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bfe…2d74backed Michael Oliveira76c8,474$6,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,033.756172.1%44 W · 17 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Oban Elliott25c8,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00029151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Michael Oliveira77c7,705$5,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,772.0817158.5%100 W · 71 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Oban Elliott23c6,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.9830039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Oban Elliott22c5,849$1,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,286.8429133.7%98 W · 193 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7966…6f94backed Oban Elliott23c5,157$1,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,186.067238.9%28 W · 44 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Michael Oliveira77c5,000$3,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,15022661.9%140 W · 86 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e37…6789backed Michael Oliveira78c4,872$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.795100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+63%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Michael Oliveira76c3,907$2,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.6810035%35 W · 65 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Oban Elliott23c3,682$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.8712052.5%63 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda34…01a8backed Oban Elliott23c3,615$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.555540%22 W · 33 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Michael Oliveira76c2,748$2,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.5617050.6%86 W · 84 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1d9…a1b2backed Michael Oliveira76c2,593$1,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.32862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9480…7456backed Michael Oliveira78c2,564$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.1683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick73cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Michael Oliveira78c2,257$1,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.645240.4%21 W · 31 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3e5…519dbacked Michael Oliveira77c2,155$1,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.583571.4%25 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick73cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Oban Elliott23c2,080$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.47128.2%20 W · 51 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-25.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Michael Oliveira75c2,076$1,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.891060%6 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Michael Oliveira76c1,940$1,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.5337152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1861…408dbacked Michael Oliveira76c1,858$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.671560%9 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Oban Elliott10c1,800$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18027448.2%132 W · 142 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed Oban Elliott22c1,711$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.414047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17b8…d5d1backed Michael Oliveira78c1,669$1,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.912847.7%61 W · 67 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Oban Elliott25c1,637$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40926140.6%106 W · 155 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2396…9485backed Oban Elliott25c1,610$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.942445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Michael Oliveira76c1,600$1,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefa3…d08bbacked Michael Oliveira76c1,460$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.764669.6%32 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Oban Elliott11c1,451$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.6433132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7d91…201bbacked Michael Oliveira77c1,264$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd485…3b87backed Michael Oliveira77c1,262$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.262100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f86…4fa9backed Oban Elliott25c1,200$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30014560%87 W · 58 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x270b…2bafbacked Michael Oliveira77c1,015$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.752161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Oban Elliott21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21032545.2%147 W · 178 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Oban Elliott23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2308461.9%52 W · 32 L+9.2wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+28.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xffb3…081ebacked Oban Elliott13c900$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.151338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xefc9…9251backed Michael Oliveira76c849.98$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2041520%3 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-72.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3449…4030backed Oban Elliott24c833.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5108…29cbbacked Oban Elliott24c833.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20016158.4%94 W · 67 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f3…3426backed Oban Elliott25c800$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014132.6%46 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-8.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Michael Oliveira75c771.91$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.9822548%108 W · 117 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35a6…ae96backed Oban Elliott24c715.17$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec5a…2e90backed Michael Oliveira77c649.35$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.352650%13 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8959…68e2backed Oban Elliott25c600$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1506142.6%26 W · 35 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c79…ddf6backed Michael Oliveira77c584.42$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.422100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a35…a978backed Michael Oliveira77c518.18$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.182642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…884ebacked Michael Oliveira80c503.25$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.46048.3%29 W · 31 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick40cpaid-0.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7650…fac1backed Michael Oliveira77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1156172.1%44 W · 17 L+8.6wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+25.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Oban Elliott8c493.4$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0915933.3%53 W · 106 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf202…4322backed Michael Oliveira77c440.7$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.362462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed Oban Elliott4c428.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.483951.3%20 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x96ea…639abacked Oban Elliott24c422.13$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.312755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4102…731abacked Oban Elliott24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-39.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Michael Oliveira76c406.17$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.488353%44 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Michael Oliveira76c399.98$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9656450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5db…5800backed Michael Oliveira77c389.61$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.612680.8%21 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick69cpaid+16.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x721e…3439backed Michael Oliveira76c389.61$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.51875%6 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xade2…e86dbacked Michael Oliveira78c384.62$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.6215656.4%88 W · 68 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f66…3a50backed Michael Oliveira78c384.62$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.625455.6%30 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb602…c7f9backed Michael Oliveira76c366.4$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.66771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick66cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Michael Oliveira78c360$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.230964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0bce…6c1dbacked Michael Oliveira77c359.26$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.636569.2%45 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick68cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a4f…ad73backed Michael Oliveira76c312.78$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.071770.6%12 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Oban Elliott25c301$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.254932.7%16 W · 33 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb8e…3dc3backed Oban Elliott24c295.29$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Oban Elliott7c292.78$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.234643.5%20 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-19.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc76e…acb0backed Michael Oliveira77c283.09$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.11757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick70cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5d7…6530backed Michael Oliveira75c279.8$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.953444.1%15 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Michael Oliveira77c262$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.2624356.8%138 W · 105 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x174e…6eb7backed Michael Oliveira77c259.74$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.741973.7%14 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0afd…10fcbacked Michael Oliveira77c243.46$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-7.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xed6c…d0bbbacked Oban Elliott23c223.59$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.266043.3%26 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb88…0e4cbacked Oban Elliott25c216$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-45.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9874…2e27backed Oban Elliott24c210$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.42744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Michael Oliveira75c203.34$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.845152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Oban Elliott10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2026451.9%137 W · 127 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+13.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf85f…6ea2backed Oban Elliott23c200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464339.5%17 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb00…780cbacked Oban Elliott25c197.64$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x718f…f25abacked Michael Oliveira77c194.81$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.811668.8%11 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick69cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bbb…4a56backed Oban Elliott24c180.72$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.37922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-52.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf49…b4a5backed Michael Oliveira78c180.32$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.323661.1%22 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe650…0944backed Oban Elliott23c174.22$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.077650%38 W · 38 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Oban Elliott25c161.6$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.43933.3%13 W · 26 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4ae…1b3dbacked Michael Oliveira76c159.87$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.672889.3%25 W · 3 L+6.6wins+0.24per pick66cpaid+30.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Michael Oliveira76c152.4$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.581560%9 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+48.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Oban Elliott22c137.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.337244.4%32 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x704d…9483backed Michael Oliveira77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.874967.3%33 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x414b…8008backed Michael Oliveira77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.871421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-63.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfb2…126abacked Michael Oliveira77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.871266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+31.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.