NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f8b521a25c1fac59df1f9cf2728afe2b6261a49a9af4f60f14d42f43d82e1ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Pistons, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Hawks | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pistons | 52c | 990.03$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.21 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb5…cdb0backed Pistons | 56c | 966.76$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.72 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Hawks | 44c | 936.99$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.72 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Pistons | 52c | 579.99$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.6 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…a108backed Pistons | 54c | 466.67$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hawks | 48c | 462$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.29 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Hawks | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 563 | 48.5%273 W · 290 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Hawks | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98da…a9ebbacked Hawks | 48c | 166.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pistons | 52c | 151.82$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.95 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Hawks | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Pistons | 55c | 90.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Hawks | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 244 | 54.1%132 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Pistons | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…6ad7backed Pistons | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hawks | 50c | 44.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa19f…f745backed Hawks | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Hawks | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Pistons | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 191 | 49.7%95 W · 96 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…f12fbacked Pistons | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Hawks | 50c | 29.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Hawks won
- Hawks vs. PistonsPistons won
- Hawks vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 232.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 233.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-10.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Pistons (-7.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Pistons (-9.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.