NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40231a9f83969a204414f7ed5486262fff21bad04b8be53381c934e99a85cf06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44f7…266fbacked Over | 1c | 4,911$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 457 | 3.5%16 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 3,733$1,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,092.22 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Over | 57c | 3,509$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 47c | 3,485$1,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,837.19 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 55c | 2,563$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.85 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710a…ed6cbacked Under | 47c | 1,200$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…d8febacked Over | 53c | 1,200$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Over | 53c | 1,042$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.85 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 52c | 809.98$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.19 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 3c | 774.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 288 | 42.7%123 W · 165 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Over | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…a108backed Over | 57c | 438.6$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 45c | 392.73$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Over | 55c | 380$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…3fccbacked Over | 53c | 347.66$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.26 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d4…9aa9backed Under | 46c | 274$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f89…8ed0backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…c657backed Under | 46c | 185$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x527d…ceb1backed Over | 55c | 180$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Over | 56c | 177.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe878…be23backed Over | 55c | 169$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 52cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…c21cbacked Under | 48c | 154.17$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.17 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +40%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Over | 54c | 122.22$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 53c | 110$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5caa…5376backed Over | 55c | 110$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 45c | 100.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.91 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2f…7677backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 45c | 81.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…90c9backed Over | 53c | 79.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 53c | 65.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…1943backed Over | 49c | 61.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1acc…35b7backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…3ec1backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8658…41c6backed Over | 55c | 47.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 53c | 36.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 45c | 35.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60c…3bf9backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Over | 54c | 33.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 54c | 29.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 48c | 22.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Hawks won
- Hawks vs. PistonsPistons won
- Hawks vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 232.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 233.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-10.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Pistons (-7.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Pistons (-9.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.