CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs MINLATE (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fa2a61c4e10c9fbbad6946b5d3e997e0f5c94856f8efc582587f05588af88aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ARCREDof ARCRED, MINLATE
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbec7…5977backed ARCRED | 73c | 7,843$5,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,117.61 | 576 | 47.6%274 W · 302 L | -25.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed MINLATE | 27c | 2,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 508 | 33.5%170 W · 338 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked MINLATE | 23c | 1,852$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.11 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed MINLATE | 27c | 1,274$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.38 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed MINLATE | 27c | 1,200$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked MINLATE | 25c | 1,182$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.4 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed ARCRED | 79c | 629.38$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.38 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked MINLATE | 17c | 471.47$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.06 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked MINLATE | 7c | 336.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked MINLATE | 18c | 319.02$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.72 | 229 | 31.4%72 W · 157 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed MINLATE | 8c | 290.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ca…3748backed MINLATE | 21c | 253.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 124 | 50%62 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked MINLATE | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked MINLATE | 21c | 196.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed MINLATE | 20c | 195.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 211 | 39.3%83 W · 128 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43c8…0551backed MINLATE | 15c | 129.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed MINLATE | 16c | 126.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -10.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d64…b4c0backed MINLATE | 20c | 125.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…7693backed MINLATE | 27c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed MINLATE | 20c | 96.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed MINLATE | 26c | 95.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed ARCRED | 72c | 83.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 186 | 57%106 W · 80 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed MINLATE | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.8wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +47%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…82b5backed MINLATE | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -57%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…397bbacked MINLATE | 25c | 61.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e9…bba0backed ARCRED | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…520cbacked MINLATE | 27c | 48.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked MINLATE | 26c | 45.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 76 | 25%19 W · 57 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed ARCRED | 69c | 43.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 208 | 56.3%117 W · 91 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked MINLATE | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked MINLATE | 33c | 36.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fdc3backed MINLATE | 28c | 36.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d6…9357backed ARCRED | 79c | 28.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd2…e8e8backed ARCRED | 77c | 26.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7719…80b6backed ARCRED | 73c | 26.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd716…730abacked ARCRED | 73c | 21.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…c9d2backed ARCRED | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…4dccbacked ARCRED | 78c | 14.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs MINLATE (BO3)this page
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs MINLATE - Map 1 WinnerARCRED won
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs MINLATE - Map 2 WinnerARCRED won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.