NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Bulls: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fa80f53cf86d1076914acd6ce871f99560d634ad9040cdbd86ddb9def483907
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 51c | 22,223$11,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,929.47 | 579 | 50.1%290 W · 289 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 48c | 15,602$7,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,479.1 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 11,796$6,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,708.47 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 51c | 9,133$4,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,613.2 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Under | 48c | 7,587$3,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,641.82 | 226 | 48.2%109 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 50c | 3,967$1,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,003.21 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 48c | 3,466$1,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,668.86 | 480 | 54.2%260 W · 220 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…1769backed Under | 49c | 2,794$1,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,369.2 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Over | 51c | 2,596$1,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.08 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Over | 51c | 1,716$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.94 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 48c | 1,519$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.33 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 49c | 1,493$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.64 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff1…49cebacked Under | 48c | 1,252$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 53c | 1,023$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.64 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 1,002$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.98 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4a…2215backed Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 198 | 38.9%77 W · 121 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 48c | 763.26$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.82 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 625.89$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.89 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 567.5$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.4 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de4…7f2ebacked Under | 49c | 520$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.8 | 98 | 42.9%42 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 48c | 348.17$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.95 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 36c | 335.04$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.27 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d3…9af1backed Under | 51c | 271$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.02 | 126 | 42.1%53 W · 73 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 63c | 206.78$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.04 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 53c | 205.98$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.86 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…e82ebacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 47c | 120.3$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Over | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 335 | 54.6%183 W · 152 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…5a3fbacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 199 | 58.3%116 W · 83 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 555 | 33.5%186 W · 369 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe83…5c7fbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Under | 52c | 49.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1760…c4edbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 49c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…2e45backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fa…222bbacked Under | 49c | 24.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 182 | 50%91 W · 91 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…0c83backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 193 | 46.1%89 W · 104 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6edf…97a1backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pistons vs. Bulls: O/U 234.5this page
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Duncan Robinson: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Pistons vs. BullsPistons won
- Pistons vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Pistons vs. Bulls: O/U 229.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Bulls: O/U 230.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Bulls: O/U 231.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Bulls: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Pistons (-10.5)Pistons won
- Tre Jones: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.