NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Bulls: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x459dfe5802dd4d252166c6ce9259b2753e2ea93a6d80f20c1219c40f09706fbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 1c | 4,943$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 51c | 4,813$2,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,343.28 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 53c | 4,030$2,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,135 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 3,226$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,563.93 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 50c | 2,810$1,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,418.42 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…bcb2backed Under | 54c | 2,687$1,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.37 | 187 | 43.3%81 W · 106 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 47c | 1,111$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.47 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 2c | 926.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1e…effebacked Over | 55c | 660$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 57c | 347$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.21 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 56c | 198.25$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.23 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Over | 44c | 150.33$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.81 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Under | 44c | 129.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 121.94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 45c | 96.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…60a1backed Under | 56c | 89.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 77c | 88.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.77 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…d031backed Under | 40c | 85.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 49c | 76.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 57c | 69.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 48c | 67.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 51c | 64.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Over | 25c | 53.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 106 | 37.7%40 W · 66 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d8…480bbacked Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Under | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…132abacked Under | 53c | 40.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 136 | 39.7%54 W · 82 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…c05fbacked Under | 39c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 48c | 39.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Under | 43c | 39.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 46c | 35.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 33.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Under | 61c | 30.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 163 | 69.9%114 W · 49 L | +18.6wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 42c | 27.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 59c | 26.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f99…e345backed Under | 47c | 24.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf8…c30ebacked Under | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d9…a144backed Over | 54c | 23.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4517…5f9ebacked Over | 56c | 23.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Over | 60c | 20.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 346 | 41%142 W · 204 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3392…73a3backed Over | 61c | 16.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f3…2749backed Over | 61c | 16.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pistons vs. Bulls: O/U 230.5this page
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Duncan Robinson: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Pistons vs. BullsPistons won
- Pistons vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Pistons vs. Bulls: O/U 229.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Bulls: O/U 231.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Bulls: O/U 234.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Bulls: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Pistons (-10.5)Pistons won
- Tre Jones: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.