MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fa997212ec26d7a5f13ae53f46d7875894238e40211d5991a0e9e711e39d0eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof New York Mets, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 1,017$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.95 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Mets | 12c | 985.7$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.58 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed New York Mets | 42c | 714.99$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.35 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed New York Mets | 41c | 704.98$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.04 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked New York Mets | 41c | 487.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.97 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 467.96$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.54 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed New York Mets | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed New York Mets | 30c | 367.43$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed New York Mets | 7c | 302.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed New York Mets | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 275.86$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.86 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 7c | 270.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed New York Mets | 18c | 250.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Mets | 13c | 215.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 153.84$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.15 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 135.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 128.92$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 120.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…c5bebacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 114.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…7b22backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 51cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed New York Mets | 41c | 95.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 95.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.12 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 54.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 172 | 53.5%92 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed New York Mets | 43c | 53.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed New York Mets | 42c | 52.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked New York Mets | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed New York Mets | 43c | 48.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 20.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.