MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdddc96b342fa1c394461a3c3f2d95448a52e92c526593653e9566020c465b3e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Cincinnati Reds, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 15,028$9,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,065.06 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets | 31c | 10,840$3,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,360.9 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 4,559$1,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,810.73 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 58c | 4,049$2,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,342.64 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed New York Mets | 31c | 2,092$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.64 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 67c | 2,055$1,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,367.32 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 68c | 667.97$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.22 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…e130backed Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 620.59$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets | 40c | 404.67$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.03 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…0e56backed Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 350$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 208 | 48.6%101 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets | 68c | 300$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed New York Mets | 56c | 125.91$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.54 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed New York Mets | 46c | 125.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed New York Mets | 32c | 108.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed New York Mets | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 69.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 57.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 46.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed New York Mets | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed New York Mets | 51c | 39.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 31.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 30.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked New York Mets | 68c | 30.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed New York Mets | 68c | 29.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked New York Mets | 48c | 26.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked New York Mets | 49c | 24.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed New York Mets | 67c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed New York Mets | 53c | 22.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Cincinnati Reds | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 937 | 73.5%689 W · 248 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed New York Mets | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.