MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4063effe6208a652bc5f9c8b777e6e1ad28475eaecc012bb85bc6341109f2302
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 47c | 7,554$3,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,990.14 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 53c | 7,212$3,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,822.83 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Under | 56c | 5,286$2,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,325.97 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 3,194$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.22 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 2,522$1,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,229.37 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 47c | 2,204$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.88 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 53c | 2,196$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.63 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 46c | 1,704$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.44 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 774.8$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.43 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 44c | 438.52$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.95 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 56c | 399.99$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…ffcabacked Over | 51c | 373.67$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.57 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Under | 54c | 272.26$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.79 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Over | 44c | 243.25$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.03 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 42c | 199.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 44c | 199$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.56 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Over | 51c | 156.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 45c | 138.76$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 65c | 90.63$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…30febacked Over | 51c | 74.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 47c | 72.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 44c | 64.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed Over | 55c | 62.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab5…da6bbacked Under | 42c | 59.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Over | 51c | 56.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf029…b1c7backed Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 42c | 52.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Under | 50c | 51.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 68c | 51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Over | 47c | 44.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…36f4backed Over | 44c | 44.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +192.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Under | 53c | 40.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5aa…e292backed Under | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cf…6659backed Over | 51c | 38.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 47c | 36.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…c2d0backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b8…2350backed Over | 51c | 33.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Over | 44c | 32.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 45c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 43c | 30.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bac…e59dbacked Over | 51c | 28.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 55c | 28.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 57c | 22.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe0…05b5backed Over | 73c | 21.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.32per pick | 51cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Under | 56c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.