MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb204794d72e16750b3e7646fcfdbddbf1cf1ddd3ac7ddece190b75ec3996c7d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 55c | 15,000$8,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,230.36 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…fcadbacked Under | 49c | 10,297$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,296.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 45c | 5,644$2,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,101.44 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 65c | 4,154$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,454.15 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 35c | 4,135$1,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,447.12 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 47c | 2,033$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.51 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Under | 41c | 825.37$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.97 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 38c | 609.23$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.46 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 64c | 506.28$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.91 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 349.25$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.51 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Over | 35c | 228.46$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 30c | 203$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 138.15$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.37 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 45c | 119.63$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 35c | 98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 42c | 97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 45c | 69.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Under | 74c | 59.71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b07…5f54backed Under | 48c | 52.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 54c | 44.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634a…dddfbacked Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Over | 47c | 41.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Over | 34c | 35.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 51c | 32.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x506e…e41bbacked Under | 46c | 32.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 46c | 31.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 58c | 27.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97c…14edbacked Under | 46c | 25.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Over | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 937 | 73.5%689 W · 248 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Under | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.