Asian League · resolved market
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fa99bdd3355ea03d160f36750709f4842cfbdd5bd9d18983211a3a74fdfbab7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 10c | 3,518$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.31 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd052…563dbacked Under | 64c | 2,500$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +84%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 1,444$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.82 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 34c | 1,087$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.97 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 38c | 1,000$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 3c | 502.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…38d6backed Over | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Over | 38c | 263.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfe…4feebacked Over | 38c | 208$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.94 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e09…2d11backed Over | 38c | 205$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.85 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 62c | 167.65$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 38c | 160.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a30…7b6cbacked Over | 39c | 153.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddeb…83f3backed Over | 39c | 139.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Under | 63c | 103.17$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b42…7cbebacked Over | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 63c | 88.54$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 38c | 85.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 62c | 76.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Over | 36c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 36c | 50.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 38c | 49.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb6…f3fabacked Under | 62c | 47.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Under | 62c | 39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 202 | 56.4%114 W · 88 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 38c | 33.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 348 | 47.4%165 W · 183 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…6163backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 89 | 41.6%37 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: Chengdu Rongcheng FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: Qingdao Hainiu FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5)Qingdao Hainiu FC won
- Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5)Chengdu Rongcheng FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.