Tennis · resolved market
Pune: Rio Noguchi vs Sumit Nagal
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fd3fa00d145fc1d85deb36b38852ced72e6484abfdaff33a9f0eaf5b0cdd5f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nagalof Noguchi, Nagal
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4173…d3edbacked Noguchi | 26c | 8,381$2,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,147.79 | 556 | 46.4%258 W · 298 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dca…72a5backed Nagal | 63c | 2,063$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.47 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…fa8ebacked Noguchi | 37c | 1,509$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.36 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Noguchi | 12c | 1,344$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.57 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Nagal | 67c | 1,191$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.81 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Noguchi | 25c | 1,011$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.85 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Noguchi | 46c | 999.99$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 1,161 | 37.6%437 W · 724 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nagal | 78c | 931.21$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.95 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Nagal | 58c | 906.09$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.8 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Noguchi | 10c | 525.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Nagal | 58c | 503.94$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.64 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…eca3backed Nagal | 54c | 483$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.18 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6863…92b4backed Noguchi | 42c | 449.99$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.9 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Nagal | 58c | 432.11$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.49 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55fc…8b73backed Noguchi | 37c | 378.38$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Noguchi | 41c | 367.4$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e31…5e8ebacked Nagal | 54c | 320$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.2 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Noguchi | 20c | 318.19$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Noguchi | 42c | 299.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.99 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…20a3backed Nagal | 60c | 299.82$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.93 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…d57bbacked Noguchi | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Nagal | 60c | 236.67$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.67 | 196 | 53.6%105 W · 91 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Noguchi | 44c | 230$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…090cbacked Noguchi | 35c | 229.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 133 | 56.4%75 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…ea3bbacked Noguchi | 42c | 228.17$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.83 | 333 | 46.2%154 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…31aabacked Noguchi | 35c | 191.05$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb3…380ebacked Nagal | 54c | 182.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.95 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6807…e3d9backed Noguchi | 41c | 162.49$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9f0abacked Noguchi | 36c | 155.16$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27e9…afc4backed Noguchi | 42c | 147.47$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9663…5b70backed Nagal | 54c | 144.33$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 857 | 48.2%413 W · 444 L | +33.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…75bebacked Nagal | 54c | 144$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf337…609abacked Noguchi | 15c | 140.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -9.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Nagal | 59c | 136.59$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 658 | 49.4%325 W · 333 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Noguchi | 17c | 136.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Noguchi | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bee…31fdbacked Noguchi | 39c | 133.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nagal | 62c | 126.23$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Nagal | 51c | 123$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Noguchi | 27c | 118.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed Noguchi | 42c | 107.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nagal | 54c | 91.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Nagal | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Noguchi | 29c | 85.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nagal | 60c | 84.92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2f…499cbacked Noguchi | 47c | 84.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Noguchi | 37c | 81.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Nagal | 75c | 81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Noguchi | 37c | 79.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5904…940fbacked Nagal | 59c | 78.14$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 114 | 65.8%75 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Noguchi | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Noguchi | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Nagal | 52c | 61.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Noguchi | 43c | 52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Nagal | 54c | 51.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 968 | 44.4%430 W · 538 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Noguchi | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 231 | 26%60 W · 171 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Noguchi | 39c | 48.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Nagal | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d0…a871backed Nagal | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +12.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…a60fbacked Nagal | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Nagal | 76c | 35.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 290 | 63.8%185 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b2…189ebacked Noguchi | 41c | 34.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Nagal | 76c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc91c…f704backed Nagal | 60c | 31.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…5644backed Nagal | 60c | 30.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed Nagal | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 244 | 54.9%134 W · 110 L | +12.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…c199backed Noguchi | 35c | 28.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Noguchi | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 770 | 47.9%369 W · 401 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…d56fbacked Noguchi | 41c | 27.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Nagal | 56c | 26.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 530 | 58.1%308 W · 222 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Nagal | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 380 | 48.4%184 W · 196 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Nagal | 70c | 24.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Nagal | 70c | 21.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed Nagal | 60c | 20.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.