MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fec9c8fb8881b455ea52e4383f711fe7a6082a5cdcf2a77eccbe939d59eee0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 12c | 64,740$7,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56,768.16 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants | 8c | 15,750$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,490 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed San Francisco Giants | 8c | 8,135$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,484.1 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked San Francisco Giants | 8c | 7,875$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,245 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 59c | 7,381$4,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,332.44 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 8c | 7,301$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.07 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 1,116$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 54c | 832.91$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.26 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked San Francisco Giants | 8c | 787.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.5 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 8c | 767$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…a27cbacked San Francisco Giants | 41c | 663$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.17 | 107 | 19.6%21 W · 86 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 9c | 507.05$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.95 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked San Francisco Giants | 42c | 505.12$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.12 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked San Francisco Giants | 8c | 375$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed San Francisco Giants | 10c | 356.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.35 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed San Francisco Giants | 46c | 250$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed San Francisco Giants | 51c | 246.07$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.72 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 109.64$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 62c | 71.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Francisco Giants | 28c | 66.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 52.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Francisco Giants | 23c | 48.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 55c | 35.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 58c | 34.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 49c | 34.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…7e0bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 78c | 28.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed San Francisco Giants | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 20.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 4.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.