TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Los Angeles Dodgersof Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,902
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,904

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,902 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Dodgers66c1,622$1,066 inWon+$555.9710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked San Francisco Giants34c1,500$510 inLost-$5101,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a93…c3eabacked Los Angeles Dodgers44c821.18$360 inWon+$461.1826545.7%121 W · 144 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants56c689.18$386 inLost-$385.9411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked San Francisco Giants40c501.25$200 inLost-$20061351.5%316 W · 297 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Los Angeles Dodgers60c441.26$265 inWon+$176.55,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed San Francisco Giants36c205$74 inLost-$74.166,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe67…dd7ebacked San Francisco Giants35c174.17$61 inLost-$60.7612742.5%54 W · 73 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants69c168.89$116 inLost-$116.1112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed San Francisco Giants32c152$49 inLost-$48.6431038.4%119 W · 191 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Los Angeles Dodgers68c152$103 inWon+$48.642,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Dodgers20c137.93$28 inWon+$110.348,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Los Angeles Dodgers61c125.82$77 inWon+$49.071,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants57c112$64 inLost-$63.848,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers36c87.2$32 inWon+$55.421,14948.9%562 W · 587 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked San Francisco Giants16c62.5$10 inLost-$101,19753.9%645 W · 552 L+42.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed San Francisco Giants39c50$20 inLost-$19.568942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Los Angeles Dodgers65c47.88$31 inWon+$16.764,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed San Francisco Giants58c17.98$10 inLost-$10.4363943.3%277 W · 362 L+1.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.