MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea5ea2b0bb2a2b85e1b9263f6b3e5484b5bc670ccb5bcd214e4eb8e20947d999
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked No | 59c | 3,506$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,436.39 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 41c | 2,028$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.68 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 41c | 1,177$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.54 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked No | 58c | 684.22$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.22 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ae…7aa6backed No | 58c | 517.43$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.43 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 41c | 450.49$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.21 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 40c | 350$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Yes | 42c | 299.99$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 40c | 219$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Yes | 42c | 199.42$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.76 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed No | 59c | 169.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 407 | 53.6%218 W · 189 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ad…a5cabacked No | 60c | 110$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Yes | 40c | 106.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9956…44e0backed No | 58c | 98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x55e4…f67dbacked Yes | 33c | 96.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 41c | 91.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 41c | 75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…0dfdbacked No | 58c | 68.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c4…c3b0backed Yes | 45c | 56.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 42c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 503 | 37.2%187 W · 316 L | -42.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…85c0backed No | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 218 | 53.2%116 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…c459backed No | 58c | 37.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 66c | 32.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e4…c62abacked Yes | 43c | 28.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 67c | 19.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgersthis page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 4.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.