Asian League · resolved market
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40223ac1b70839c91a062c363e655fbf7d4bd95b070422a5c3636c4507d1a488
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 38c | 1,000$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.13 | 108 | 23.1%25 W · 83 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 62c | 796.59$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.54 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 34c | 746.58$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.11 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 693.22$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.77 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 66c | 602.38$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Under | 64c | 591.99$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.88 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 575.05$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.86 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb7…02d8backed Over | 42c | 509.71$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.63 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Under | 49c | 483.67$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Under | 44c | 455.62$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 20c | 324.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.55 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 39c | 298.94$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.35 | 119 | 31.9%38 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked Over | 36c | 277.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.76 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 74c | 182.24$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 66 | 92.4%61 W · 5 L | +17.8wins | +0.27per pick | 65cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 60c | 174.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.79 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 36c | 97.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.58 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 45c | 88.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 375 | 62.7%235 W · 140 L | +61.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 181 | 38.7%70 W · 111 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 33c | 69.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Over | 36c | 67.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 34c | 55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 225 | 44%99 W · 126 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7210…521fbacked Under | 62c | 46.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 62c | 46.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 135 | 63.7%86 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Under | 67c | 41.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6df…e2aabacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 46c | 32.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 68c | 30.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 67c | 29.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 54c | 27.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Over | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…804abacked Under | 72c | 24.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 60c | 24.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c5…7ba3backed Under | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 66c | 17.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 66c | 17.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shandong Taishan FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Shandong Taishan FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Shandong Taishan FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Shandong Taishan FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Shandong Taishan FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-1.5)Shandong Taishan FC won
- Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-1.5)Shandong Taishan FC won
- Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-2.5)Chongqing Tonglianglong FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.