Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40595b5b1edce4b15b62a3a11f87f774f3dee3efb28abf608a16d669790159d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x363c…9b0ebacked Over | 52c | 1,300$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.95 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Under | 48c | 795$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.4 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 49c | 754.47$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.5 | 170 | 40.6%69 W · 101 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Under | 49c | 523.85$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.72 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 49c | 263.43$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.24 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 51c | 225$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.31 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x916a…a570backed Over | 51c | 222.54$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f4…dc3ebacked Over | 50c | 220$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed8…7559backed Over | 51c | 208.82$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e78…fb29backed Over | 51c | 206.35$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Under | 66c | 201.5$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.13 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Over | 51c | 196.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1a…0db5backed Over | 54c | 161$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca4b…521ebacked Under | 52c | 125$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Over | 44c | 92.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…dd3cbacked Under | 52c | 91.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f88…c6e8backed Over | 42c | 54.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -13.7wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc28b…3683backed Over | 52c | 48.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aef…887abacked Over | 49c | 47.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Under | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed Over | 33c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…ca8bbacked Under | 53c | 41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…dd56backed Over | 51c | 39.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Under | 62c | 37.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked Under | 48c | 31.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 240 | 34.2%82 W · 158 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…2a66backed Under | 48c | 31.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 49c | 28.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Under | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 49c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x468b…68a5backed Under | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…5df1backed Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Under | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…4442backed Under | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 135 | 51.9%70 W · 65 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed Over | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - The International Group StageTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)Team Spirit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.