TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Spiritof Team Spirit, Aurora
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$290,901
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$372,552

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $290,901 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 317 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x79ae…9a4abacked Aurora45c39,075$17,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,583.5423435.9%84 W · 150 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7e2…9e36backed Team Spirit55c35,980$19,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,191.092766.7%18 W · 9 L+4.8wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+39.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6d20…a165backed Aurora44c28,544$12,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,482.929733%32 W · 65 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d36…f787backed Aurora44c25,000$10,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,899.921450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd690…47febacked Aurora47c21,066$9,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,918.34742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd30…f316backed Team Spirit50c14,745$7,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,372.4412159.5%72 W · 49 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Team Spirit59c13,216$7,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,375.166553.8%35 W · 30 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd63…050fbacked Team Spirit56c10,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,4003951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8992…ed1fbacked Team Spirit57c9,008$5,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,913.476050%30 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0ac…a2c9backed Team Spirit57c6,097$3,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,621.71728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed Team Spirit79c5,968$4,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250.5318844.7%84 W · 104 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b60…edbebacked Aurora41c5,491$2,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,251.394837.5%18 W · 30 L-7.9wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-31.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked Team Spirit67c5,000$3,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,668.5935850.6%181 W · 177 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2a5…55d6backed Aurora44c5,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.982045%9 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x689f…259cbacked Aurora43c4,114$1,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,765.313046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Aurora44c3,850$1,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,69411649.1%57 W · 59 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked Team Spirit58c3,804$2,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,597.850347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe522…cc1abacked Team Spirit79c3,133$2,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.842560%15 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc31…971fbacked Team Spirit56c3,100$1,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,364875%6 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+41.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0385…acafbacked Team Spirit56c3,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,320450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf796…de54backed Team Spirit60c3,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2006651.5%34 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Aurora42c2,806$1,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.748536.5%31 W · 54 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked Team Spirit59c2,779$1,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.2329160.1%175 W · 116 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x968b…87f6backed Team Spirit55c2,700$1,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2151471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Team Spirit56c2,555$1,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.3412259.8%73 W · 49 L+11.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x89dc…c012backed Team Spirit55c2,273$1,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.093441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0af2…a2bbbacked Team Spirit57c2,160$1,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.545745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c2b…825ebacked Aurora47c2,135$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010637.7%40 W · 66 L-9.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-21.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Aurora42c2,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84081029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Team Spirit56c1,786$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.7161745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb29…947abacked Team Spirit55c1,777$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.254953.1%26 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3452…1ba0backed Team Spirit61c1,700$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65618351.9%95 W · 88 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Team Spirit58c1,666$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.9617047.1%80 W · 90 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed Aurora27c1,589$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.4220030.5%61 W · 139 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Aurora42c1,524$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.3458744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63bc…92c5backed Team Spirit56c1,400$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.9911045.5%50 W · 60 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Team Spirit58c1,379$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.3832548.9%159 W · 166 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Team Spirit56c1,326$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.7588539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Team Spirit60c1,266$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.2558943%253 W · 336 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2fc…b1b4backed Team Spirit56c1,242$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.3915353.6%82 W · 71 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a74…de59backed Aurora44c1,222$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.672343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Spirit56c1,128$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.581,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Aurora43c1,110$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.2117040.6%69 W · 101 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Aurora26c1,106$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.3196645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x068c…bce7backed Aurora41c1,044$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.936241.9%26 W · 36 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa60e…d332backed Aurora16c1,022$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.732035%7 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-31.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc581…0f24backed Aurora42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4201650%8 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7243…942abacked Aurora21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21013850%69 W · 69 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6cf…d3f0backed Team Spirit56c999.99$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44017449.4%86 W · 88 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora32c999.27$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.462,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Team Spirit60c941.67$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.6761057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Team Spirit56c900$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39643738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Aurora44c872.94$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.0964744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Team Spirit56c872$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.6880443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Aurora41c853.66$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35020827.9%58 W · 150 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed Team Spirit56c846.21$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.2741455.6%230 W · 184 L+41.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Aurora42c834.73$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.281,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Aurora41c781.75$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.011,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Team Spirit61c750$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.166947.1%315 W · 354 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dab…22e1backed Team Spirit57c747.76$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.542441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb36…aa97backed Aurora24c739.88$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6129…0807backed Team Spirit78c735.04$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.713641.7%15 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-20.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2185…b40cbacked Team Spirit56c720$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.81020%2 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-61.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Team Spirit62c710.19$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.021,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Aurora44c700$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30846240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a53…dfefbacked Team Spirit57c700$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3016149.2%30 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98eb…8c14backed Team Spirit56c690$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.62661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f88…c6e8backed Team Spirit52c655$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.2212335.8%44 W · 79 L-13.7wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-32.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe66e…946bbacked Aurora22c636.36$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14021043.8%92 W · 118 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Team Spirit58c626.77$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.2556945.2%257 W · 312 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb88a…f6adbacked Team Spirit56c601$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.442152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Team Spirit59c596.72$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.671342.5%303 W · 410 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Aurora16c564.54$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.997341.1%30 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Aurora46c558.96$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.91,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Team Spirit64c552.98$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.9843860.5%265 W · 173 L+44.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+14.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3aa5…cd80backed Team Spirit78c549.65$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.923256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cd3…226ebacked Aurora29c539.12$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.8721328.2%60 W · 153 L-16.0wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-28.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Aurora45c537.14$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.7129243.2%126 W · 166 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x28f5…2035backed Team Spirit56c536$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.8433265.4%217 W · 115 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x39df…644bbacked Team Spirit65c503.4$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.41741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f18…1ae2backed Team Spirit57c500$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2154355.8%24 W · 19 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Team Spirit78c500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11010766.4%71 W · 36 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Team Spirit60c473$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.9758746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Team Spirit58c471$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.5844049.3%217 W · 223 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd4b…d965backed Aurora43c467.49$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71e7…1082backed Team Spirit58c465.52$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.521656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1e…fd05backed Aurora44c454.55$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011949.6%59 W · 60 L+7.7wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Aurora41c442.42$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.3912155.4%67 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+134.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fc9…222ebacked Aurora22c433.5$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.321127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-57.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc670…b781backed Aurora42c432.9$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.8418247.8%87 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked Team Spirit59c430$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.359254.1%320 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Aurora39c424.04$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.889238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x835b…118fbacked Team Spirit72c405$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.39862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6aa…178ebacked Team Spirit57c400.92$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f93…a687backed Team Spirit59c400$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1643369.7%23 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+25.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Aurora41c399.99$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16438142%160 W · 221 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2dd…3ff9backed Team Spirit55c362.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.51662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5633…59bcbacked Team Spirit56c361$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.841758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45c5…2a38backed Team Spirit75c358.73$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.832055%11 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked Team Spirit56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.1491356.1%512 W · 401 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.