TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Spiritof Team Spirit, Aurora
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,053,313
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,425,460

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,053,313 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 479 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd30…f316backed Team Spirit55c180,000$99,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80,700.8112159.5%72 W · 49 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Spirit56c89,040$50,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,040.461,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked Aurora46c45,387$20,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,824.3523435.9%84 W · 150 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed Aurora45c27,313$12,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,317.7712348%59 W · 64 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Aurora44c24,994$10,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,956.889736.1%35 W · 62 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Aurora45c22,222$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,999.945139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aec…4ce9backed Team Spirit70c19,476$13,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,759.3130667.3%206 W · 100 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b60…edbebacked Aurora44c17,300$7,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,657.594837.5%18 W · 30 L-7.9wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-31.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked Team Spirit49c16,810$8,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,652.1550347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadea…b96dbacked Aurora17c16,450$2,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,796731.4%1 W · 72 L-7.1wins-0.10per pick11cpaid-91.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7414…72a3backed Aurora44c15,800$7,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0303633.3%12 W · 24 L-5.8wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-24.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa103…1c14backed Aurora44c15,000$6,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,6007548%36 W · 39 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Aurora42c14,892$6,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,255.7436041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Aurora30c14,422$4,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,281.1489741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora44c13,947$6,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,080.031,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Aurora47c13,263$6,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,283.2353451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Aurora44c11,438$4,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,980.6625446.1%117 W · 137 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedfc…b7b1backed Aurora47c10,640$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0008348.2%40 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Aurora50c9,974$4,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,996.548954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Aurora48c8,299$3,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,976.1350850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eea…1a4cbacked Team Spirit61c8,111$4,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,147.9812858.6%75 W · 53 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3eb3…4d75backed Team Spirit56c7,620$4,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,338.4611753%62 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Team Spirit54c7,550$4,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,457.1332548.9%159 W · 166 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Aurora38c7,132$2,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,693.5988539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa21b…e4e4backed Aurora50c6,668$3,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,341.713633.3%12 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb3a4…6c3ebacked Aurora40c6,417$2,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,560.885137.3%19 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37e9…eedebacked Aurora41c6,081$2,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,493.0510045%45 W · 55 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a56…10f5backed Aurora50c6,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00018950.8%96 W · 93 L+10.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Aurora41c5,761$2,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,353.991,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Team Spirit73c5,705$4,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,516.2337745.9%173 W · 204 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Aurora45c5,378$2,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,42072035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Team Spirit58c5,200$3,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1848242.7%35 W · 47 L-8.2wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-22.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x21c7…42e7backed Aurora52c5,176$2,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,697.8910256.9%58 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Team Spirit63c5,154$3,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,907.7647650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8495…550ebacked Aurora47c5,050$2,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,365.159052.2%47 W · 43 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Team Spirit54c5,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,30069644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x068c…bce7backed Team Spirit54c5,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3006241.9%26 W · 36 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Aurora43c5,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,15041944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a01…c89ebacked Team Spirit79c4,481$3,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.8528251.8%146 W · 136 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf395…23ddbacked Aurora51c4,392$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73f4…158ebacked Team Spirit70c4,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20023561.7%145 W · 90 L+19.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x63bc…4179backed Aurora30c4,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.998834.1%30 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd61a…708bbacked Aurora46c3,898$1,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,789.514151.2%21 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc156…f76cbacked Aurora48c3,812$1,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,818.9216547.9%79 W · 86 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3aa5…cd80backed Aurora45c3,800$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7103256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Aurora39c3,641$1,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,405.4153764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Aurora47c3,463$1,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,629.6189749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed Team Spirit67c3,462$2,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.7633453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a81…0e8fbacked Aurora34c3,220$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.914148.8%20 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Aurora35c3,165$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,117.761,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x53b2…9f96backed Aurora57c3,156$1,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,784.718658.1%50 W · 36 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f88…c6e8backed Aurora46c3,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,38012335.8%44 W · 79 L-13.7wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-32.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa0e1…b9b4backed Aurora55c3,000$1,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,639.999852%51 W · 47 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed Aurora28c2,944$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81820030.5%61 W · 139 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Team Spirit54c2,929$1,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,347.3629243.2%126 W · 166 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Aurora49c2,925$1,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,438.996645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Aurora26c2,896$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.9641242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x266e…90f3backed Team Spirit65c2,800$1,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.059968.7%68 W · 31 L+12.4wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+9.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2391…554fbacked Team Spirit71c2,800$1,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.1312141.3%50 W · 71 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed Aurora42c2,800$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.9918830.9%58 W · 130 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d8a…f907backed Aurora45c2,775$1,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,248.7514136.9%52 W · 89 L-13.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Aurora46c2,703$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,239.1193546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x958b…50cebacked Team Spirit76c2,701$2,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.234866.7%32 W · 16 L+8.1wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+13.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x02fe…c5a5backed Aurora45c2,575$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.948740.2%35 W · 52 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd99b…50bebacked Aurora45c2,520$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,128.47142.3%30 W · 41 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked Aurora41c2,476$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.9735850.6%181 W · 177 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081c…5de0backed Team Spirit52c2,458$1,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,180.083619.4%7 W · 29 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-45.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Aurora45c2,455$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,108.3368649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Aurora39c2,325$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$917.3350353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a14…cba2backed Aurora44c2,100$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9241915.8%3 W · 16 L-5.8wins-0.31per pick46cpaid-64.8%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Aurora46c2,089$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.3225143.4%109 W · 142 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba43…c6c0backed Team Spirit59c2,013$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.55149%25 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57f1…5ecfbacked Team Spirit58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8406642.4%28 W · 38 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Spirit45c2,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.9853652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8921…6ae9backed Aurora44c1,918$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08b8…e7dabacked Aurora45c1,796$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.0431055.2%171 W · 139 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Aurora38c1,746$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.4477256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47e8…efdcbacked Aurora58c1,724$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00019456.2%109 W · 85 L+13.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x274f…971abacked Aurora49c1,695$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.2414657.5%84 W · 62 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Team Spirit59c1,656$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.9622543.6%98 W · 127 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Team Spirit55c1,655$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.155658.9%33 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Aurora45c1,616$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.9758744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Team Spirit50c1,600$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.6657449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked Team Spirit44c1,587$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$893.733867.8%229 W · 109 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Aurora40c1,546$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.3489238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc592…1ccebacked Aurora45c1,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6759042.2%38 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Aurora47c1,500$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.181,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Team Spirit62c1,474$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.8391553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Team Spirit57c1,422$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.4530336.6%111 W · 192 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked Aurora50c1,412$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.8416641%68 W · 98 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xce20…0b7bbacked Team Spirit71c1,409$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.7612060.8%73 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Team Spirit55c1,401$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.4556955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3724…69b5backed Team Spirit55c1,380$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6216841.2%28 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65fe…c200backed Team Spirit72c1,380$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.926564.6%42 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8db…ba5fbacked Team Spirit62c1,358$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.963647.2%17 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48ba…d81dbacked Aurora44c1,348$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.756343.9%247 W · 316 L-1.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe37e…6d97backed Aurora45c1,333$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6006163.9%39 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Team Spirit69c1,302$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.4516665.7%109 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ef…e2d1backed Aurora35c1,175$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.552842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Aurora43c1,155$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.6517040.6%69 W · 101 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.