TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Spiritof Team Spirit, Aurora
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$737,878
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$975,203

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $737,878 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 412 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Spirit54c81,744$44,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,744.431,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Aurora36c48,360$17,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,278.7189741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked Aurora39c32,555$12,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,819.9450347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aec…4ce9backed Team Spirit75c29,981$22,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,544.3730667.3%206 W · 100 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora40c27,773$11,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,095.011,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd30…f316backed Team Spirit51c24,949$12,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,223.5612159.5%72 W · 49 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Aurora48c20,266$9,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,827.693852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed Aurora49c20,000$9,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,799.9947646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed Team Spirit52c19,945$10,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,590.3212348%59 W · 64 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadea…b96dbacked Aurora7c15,500$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.25731.4%1 W · 72 L-7.1wins-0.10per pick11cpaid-91.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Aurora42c14,000$5,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,88036041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfae1…fdc1backed Team Spirit31c12,351$3,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,571.72128.6%6 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-45.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Team Spirit54c11,022$6,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,020.2953451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Aurora38c10,290$3,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,915.7125446.1%117 W · 137 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x068c…bce7backed Aurora47c9,980$4,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,662.066241.9%26 W · 36 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Aurora47c9,747$4,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,541.0369644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Spirit56c7,786$4,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,436.521,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Team Spirit56c7,188$4,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,137.928242.7%35 W · 47 L-8.2wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-22.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa21b…e4e4backed Team Spirit55c7,039$3,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,193.973633.3%12 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7993…cf5abacked Team Spirit79c6,812$5,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,416.492962.1%18 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Aurora53c6,568$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,500.361,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Aurora44c5,000$2,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,17510050%50 W · 50 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18e4…e2bbbacked Team Spirit51c5,000$2,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4707936.7%29 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Aurora47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,35041944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c01…e7d0backed Aurora44c4,392$1,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,932.4712350.4%62 W · 61 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1de…21f5backed Aurora48c4,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92030452.3%159 W · 145 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Aurora41c3,954$1,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,627.3188539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eea…1a4cbacked Team Spirit49c3,951$1,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,022.9812858.6%75 W · 53 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Team Spirit55c3,754$2,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,689.441056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73bc…46cebacked Team Spirit54c3,618$1,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,662.2110540%42 W · 63 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Aurora49c3,518$1,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,714.8947650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Aurora75c3,500$2,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,62541242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcdd…73a5backed Team Spirit70c3,449$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,048.8115739.5%62 W · 95 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0e1…b9b4backed Team Spirit48c3,400$1,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,751.989852%51 W · 47 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Team Spirit48c3,261$1,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,680.5932548.9%159 W · 166 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f88…c6e8backed Aurora47c3,224$1,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,523.8812335.8%44 W · 79 L-13.7wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-32.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x818b…c5ebbacked Aurora64c3,112$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0009658.3%56 W · 40 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Aurora50c3,015$1,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,505.868649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Team Spirit64c2,919$1,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,052.4435758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Team Spirit54c2,918$1,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,342.6829243.2%126 W · 166 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0ac…a2c9backed Aurora43c2,805$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,206.14728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Aurora47c2,799$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30496645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Team Spirit51c2,780$1,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,371.9522543.6%98 W · 127 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed Aurora26c2,611$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.8420030.5%61 W · 139 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Aurora43c2,500$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08557449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Spirit55c2,500$1,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,12553652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48ba…d81dbacked Aurora43c2,475$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.2456343.9%247 W · 316 L-1.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53b2…9f96backed Team Spirit48c2,309$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,198.48658.1%50 W · 36 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Aurora50c2,190$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.6689749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e24…7014backed Team Spirit46c2,167$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,165.1110453.8%56 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Aurora47c2,134$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.371,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f6a…599abacked Team Spirit49c2,117$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.679061.1%55 W · 35 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+8.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x274f…971abacked Team Spirit62c2,093$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.2314657.5%84 W · 62 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Aurora45c2,071$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.9850749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Aurora39c2,069$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.3430336.6%111 W · 192 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Aurora54c2,065$1,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.3537745.9%173 W · 204 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Team Spirit57c2,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8609556.8%54 W · 41 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a56…10f5backed Team Spirit46c1,998$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,078.418950.8%96 W · 93 L+10.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x024a…35a3backed Team Spirit54c1,993$1,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.564065%26 W · 14 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd8b5…54c4backed Aurora45c1,945$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.2229240.8%119 W · 173 L+0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dc5…c07dbacked Team Spirit48c1,876$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.5212263.1%77 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Aurora51c1,843$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.5450353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2931…7b81backed Aurora54c1,837$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00018660.8%113 W · 73 L+12.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Aurora46c1,800$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83458744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e01…b0b5backed Team Spirit52c1,764$923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.7920642.7%88 W · 118 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf395…23ddbacked Team Spirit57c1,754$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.39757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Team Spirit71c1,748$1,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.4145352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa22b…3525backed Aurora43c1,742$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.111457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+40.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc156…f76cbacked Team Spirit49c1,681$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.816547.9%79 W · 86 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55db…a37dbacked Aurora66c1,600$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.26770.1%47 W · 20 L+8.4wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+14.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x568b…4727backed Team Spirit57c1,600$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.841442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed Aurora41c1,596$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.2951140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081c…5de0backed Aurora33c1,568$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.553619.4%7 W · 29 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-45.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0c78…4cb9backed Team Spirit51c1,567$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.07333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked Aurora25c1,523$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.4733845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Aurora46c1,502$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.9160349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Aurora49c1,500$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.11,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Aurora43c1,500$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64517040.6%69 W · 101 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3bc…5bd2backed Aurora49c1,432$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70013943.9%61 W · 78 L-11.8wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-17.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x02fe…c5a5backed Aurora44c1,416$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.258740.2%35 W · 52 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd61a…708bbacked Team Spirit56c1,415$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.794151.2%21 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Spirit48c1,405$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.641,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3289…84debacked Team Spirit57c1,400$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6022556%14 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce20…0b7bbacked Aurora74c1,392$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.1312060.8%73 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x633e…d305backed Aurora47c1,333$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.6710453.8%56 W · 48 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9f4…c1e4backed Aurora51c1,328$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.3142639.4%168 W · 258 L-39.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf3de…6fe8backed Team Spirit50c1,313$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.5210075%75 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3b…aa7dbacked Aurora75c1,265$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.925145.1%23 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Aurora23c1,264$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28572035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed Aurora49c1,200$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.7426247.7%125 W · 137 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked Aurora41c1,130$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.2135850.6%181 W · 177 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Aurora56c1,038$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.2347748.6%232 W · 245 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Aurora47c1,034$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.8496557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf48f…e9b9backed Team Spirit50c1,021$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.435152.9%27 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bcc…b4fabacked Team Spirit55c1,016$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46116959.2%100 W · 69 L+14.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+11.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked Team Spirit66c1,016$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.7435960.4%217 W · 142 L-1.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e03…040fbacked Aurora75c1,015$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.622948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7cc…644ebacked Aurora48c1,015$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.62875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+55.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1568…2a89backed Aurora19c1,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1909122%20 W · 71 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Aurora73c999.99$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73050769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.