Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0227799c2fedaafbd9afa91f3288ccd95cec4bbb6c37c9ea3c2842fbf235383f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Team Spirit, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Team Spirit | 34c | 11,759$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,759.03 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Aurora | 66c | 11,000$7,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,260 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8992…ed1fbacked Team Spirit | 33c | 5,004$1,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,350.49 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed Aurora | 73c | 3,273$2,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,373.06 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Team Spirit | 27c | 2,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,460 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f88…c6e8backed Aurora | 72c | 1,587$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.81 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -13.7wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked Aurora | 73c | 1,118$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.23 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64f4…b38ebacked Team Spirit | 32c | 1,094$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.75 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf07b…def2backed Team Spirit | 30c | 754.2$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.2 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…14b3backed Aurora | 68c | 681.07$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Team Spirit | 27c | 500$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365 | 268 | 46.6%125 W · 143 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3724…69b5backed Aurora | 67c | 476.12$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Spirit | 13c | 396.26$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.75 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Team Spirit | 34c | 352.94$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.94 | 222 | 60.4%134 W · 88 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…111abacked Aurora | 72c | 328.63$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.61 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed Aurora | 66c | 298.99$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.33 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Aurora | 66c | 265.63$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.32 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Aurora | 66c | 236$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.76 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Aurora | 66c | 224.14$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.93 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Aurora | 67c | 223.88$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 267 | 41.9%112 W · 155 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Aurora | 64c | 156.09$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a53…71a3backed Team Spirit | 54c | 150.69$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.74 | 185 | 62.7%116 W · 69 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Team Spirit | 28c | 150$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Team Spirit | 55c | 145.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Aurora | 66c | 132.57$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.37 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Aurora | 67c | 120$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 227 | 38.3%87 W · 140 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aff…b136backed Team Spirit | 31c | 116.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.55 | 324 | 45.1%146 W · 178 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked Aurora | 46c | 108.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260a…eb0fbacked Team Spirit | 34c | 101.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.01 | 153 | 68%104 W · 49 L | +17.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Aurora | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Team Spirit | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Team Spirit | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Team Spirit | 28c | 90.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.78 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Team Spirit | 27c | 90$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Aurora | 67c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…c89bbacked Aurora | 67c | 78.82$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72da…9b77backed Team Spirit | 28c | 74.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.24 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked Aurora | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Aurora | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Team Spirit | 44c | 61.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Aurora | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Team Spirit | 28c | 58.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed Aurora | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 145 | 66.2%96 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…71cebacked Team Spirit | 32c | 55.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked Team Spirit | 68c | 54.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a06…248abacked Team Spirit | 34c | 54.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4c…f414backed Aurora | 73c | 52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 66cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked Team Spirit | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Team Spirit | 45c | 49.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1a…0db5backed Aurora | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…a5f9backed Team Spirit | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…ca8bbacked Team Spirit | 31c | 41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7560…1ee1backed Aurora | 31c | 35.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 211 | 33.6%71 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Aurora | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Aurora | 68c | 34.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 421 | 46.6%196 W · 225 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Team Spirit | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Team Spirit | 71c | 31.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…41f5backed Team Spirit | 45c | 30.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Aurora | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 250 | 47.6%119 W · 131 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Aurora | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Aurora | 39c | 29.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Aurora | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…b1b4backed Aurora | 68c | 21.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked Aurora | 50c | 21.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed Aurora | 72c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…914ebacked Aurora | 69c | 20.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…5bc9backed Aurora | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -64%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Aurora | 69c | 16.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - The International Group StageTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.