Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x405f3f762f5fbeff1a8a6cf6ab5d1f5a4acfc81c33669fc11bae313685783d7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Belgiumof Croatia, Belgium
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Croatia | 11c | 2,532$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.34 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Croatia | 13c | 931.03$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.68 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Croatia | 13c | 591.52$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.9 | 740 | 34.1%252 W · 488 L | -36.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…de5dbacked Croatia | 17c | 588.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Croatia | 12c | 586.46$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.27 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Croatia | 12c | 452.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 115 | 20%23 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked Croatia | 16c | 197$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 585 | 30.9%181 W · 404 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…1184backed Croatia | 13c | 146.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…f3ebbacked Croatia | 16c | 142.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Croatia | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Croatia | 13c | 91.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 709 | 48.9%347 W · 362 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Croatia (-1.5)this page
- Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5Over won
- Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5Over won
- Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5Under won
- Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5Under won
- Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5Under won
- Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Belgium (-1.5)Belgium won
- Spread: Belgium (-2.5)Croatia won
- Spread: Croatia (-2.5)Belgium won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.